All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
Indianapolis ColtsWon · Crowd had 67%19
Houston TexansCrowd had 33%17
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Indianapolis Colts won 19–17.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 48 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Yes
52%Market price
+48Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
winsCrowd beat the market
Houston win by 3 or moreSurprise
there be more than 42.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Indianapolis Colts ✓67%
Houston Texans33%
OutcomeIndianapolis Colts
Voters3
ReadCrowd
2Will Houston win by 3 or more?
Yes100%
No ✓0%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.567%
Under 42.5 ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters3
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Houston wins 1st Half33%
Indianapolis wins 1st Half ✓33%
Tie 1st Half33%
OutcomeIndianapolis wins 1st Half
Voters3
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Indianapolis ColtsCrowd
Mkt 43%Crowd 67%+24pp
Result: Indianapolis Colts · 0.22
: Deep
Will Houston win by 3 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 100%+48pp
Result: No · 2.00
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Upset
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Houston wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 49%Crowd 33%-16pp
Result: Indianapolis wins 1st Half · 0.67
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Houston win by 3 or more2.00
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.90
Who leads at half-time0.67
Average0.95
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A Houston-dominant vision: Texans control from the first whistle, build a lead of 3-plus, and both offences combine for a high-scoring afternoon.

Who wins?Houston Texans
Will Houston win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Houston wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A split-half picture: neither side separates by the break, yet Houston pulls clear late in a game where points flow freely and the margin lands above 3.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Houston win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

A defensive grind with a twist: Colts lead at the break and the scoring stays low, yet Houston is still seen clawing back to win by 3 or more by the final whistle.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Houston win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis wins 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Houston win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Houston TexansGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Houston wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
4.6×
233%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
333%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
Indianapolis wins 1st HalfCalled it!
4.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.70How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.6×The most-backed combination drew 4.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 41 · 33%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 1.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.