All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
Cleveland BrownsWon · Crowd had 60%21
Carolina PanthersCrowd had 40%18
The verdict

The crowd called it — Cleveland Browns won 21–18.

Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers 5 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Cleveland Browns, and the crowd had it.

60%Crowd on Cleveland Browns
42%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
Carolina win by 3 or…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 42.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters5World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Cleveland Browns ✓60%
Carolina Panthers40%
OutcomeCleveland Browns
Voters5
ReadCrowd
2Will Carolina win by 3 or more?
No ✓60%
Yes40%
OutcomeNo
Voters5
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Under 42.5 ✓60%
Over 42.540%
OutcomeUnder 42.5
Voters5
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Carolina wins 1st Half40%
Cleveland wins 1st Half ✓40%
Tie 1st Half20%
OutcomeCleveland wins 1st Half
Voters5
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Cleveland BrownsCrowd
Mkt 42%Crowd 60%+18pp
Result: Cleveland Browns · 0.32
: Deep
Will Carolina win by 3 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 60%+12pp
Result: No · 0.32
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Under 42.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 60%+8pp
Result: Under 42.5 · 0.32
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Carolina wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 40%-18pp
Result: Cleveland wins 1st Half · 0.56
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.32
Will Carolina win by 3 or more0.32
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.32
Who leads at half-time0.56
Average0.38
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A Carolina-controlled game from the first whistle, winning by a comfortable margin in a low-scoring, disciplined contest they led throughout.

Who wins?Carolina Panthers
Will Carolina win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Carolina wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

Cleveland edges ahead early but Carolina claws back to win by three or more in a tight, low-total game that flips in the second half.

Who wins?Carolina Panthers
Will Carolina win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Under 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Cleveland wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 20% of voters

Carolina sets the early pace in a high-scoring affair, but Cleveland grinds back to take the game without Carolina ever covering the spread.

Who wins?Cleveland Browns
Will Carolina win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Carolina wins 1st Half
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 5 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Carolina win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%1 voter
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
Carolina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
5.2×
220%1 voter
Carolina PanthersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 42.5Called it!
Cleveland wins 1st HalfCalled it!
5.2×
320%1 voter
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Carolina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.5×
420%1 voter
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 42.5Got it wrong
Cleveland wins 1st HalfCalled it!
3.5×
520%1 voter
Cleveland BrownsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 42.5Called it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
4.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (5 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.76How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call5.2×The most-backed combination drew 5.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-26. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 42 · 40%
2 / 42 · 40%
1 / 41 · 20%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=5). Average 2.2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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