All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Indianapolis ColtsCrowd's pick · 52%23
Baltimore RavensWon · Crowd had 48%41
The verdict

The crowd backed Indianapolis Colts. Baltimore Ravens won 23–41.

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens 571 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 13 points above the market's price on Indianapolis Colts, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on Indianapolis Colts
39%Market price
+13Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Against the spread, who…Surprise
total points are scoredCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters571World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Indianapolis Colts52%
Baltimore Ravens ✓48%
OutcomeBaltimore Ravens
Voters571
ReadMarket
2Against the spread, who covers?
Indianapolis Colts +3.555%
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 ✓45%
OutcomeBaltimore Ravens -3.5
Voters571
ReadUpset
3How many total points are scored?
Over 47.5 ✓51%
Under 47.549%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters571
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Indianapolis Colts46%
Baltimore Ravens ✓40%
Tie14%
OutcomeBaltimore Ravens
Voters571
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Indianapolis ColtsMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 52%+13pp
Result: Baltimore Ravens · 0.54
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Indianapolis Colts +3.5Upset
Mkt 54%Crowd 55%+1pp
Result: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 · 0.61
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 47.5Consensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 51%-2pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.48
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Indianapolis ColtsMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 46%+7pp
Result: Baltimore Ravens · 0.59
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.54
Against the spread, who covers0.61
How many total points are scored0.48
Who leads at half-time0.59
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: a Colts upset, controlling the game from the first half in a high-scoring affair and covering the spread as the home underdog.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Against the spread, who covers?Indianapolis Colts +3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis Colts
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters · came true

A Ravens-believers' picture: Baltimore in command at the half, pulling away in a free-flowing, high-scoring game and covering the spread with room to spare.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Against the spread, who covers?Baltimore Ravens -3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Baltimore Ravens
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A grittier Ravens scenario: Baltimore dominant and efficient, leading at the break and grinding out a controlled win that kept the scoring below the total.

Who wins?Baltimore Ravens
Against the spread, who covers?Baltimore Ravens -3.5
How many total points are scored?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Baltimore Ravens
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 571 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
117%98 voters
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
Indianapolis Colts +3.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
2.6×
210%55 voters
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
Baltimore Ravens -3.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
2.2×
39%53 voters
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
Baltimore Ravens -3.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
2.2×
49%51 voters
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
Indianapolis Colts +3.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
1.4×
56%32 voters
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
Indianapolis Colts +3.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
1.0×
65%26 voters
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
Baltimore Ravens -3.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
0.9×
74%24 voters
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
Indianapolis Colts +3.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
0.8×
84%22 voters
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
Baltimore Ravens -3.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
0.8×
94%20 voters
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
Baltimore Ravens -3.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
0.6×
103%18 voters
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
Baltimore Ravens -3.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Baltimore RavensCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (571 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.6×The most-backed combination drew 2.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 455 · 10%
3 / 4115 · 20%
2 / 4146 · 26%
1 / 4190 · 33%
0 / 465 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=571). Average 1.83 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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