All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
Pittsburgh SteelersWon · Crowd had 67%30
Cincinnati BengalsCrowd had 33%27
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 42.5. Pittsburgh Steelers won 30–27.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 48 points above the market's price on Over 42.5, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on Over 42.5
52%Market price
+48Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
Cincinnati win by 4 or…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 42.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Pittsburgh Steelers ✓67%
Cincinnati Bengals33%
OutcomePittsburgh Steelers
Voters3
ReadCrowd
2Will Cincinnati win by 4 or more?
No ✓67%
Yes33%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 42.5 points?
Over 42.5 ✓100%
Under 42.50%
OutcomeOver 42.5
Voters3
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Cincinnati wins 1st Half67%
Pittsburgh wins 1st Half33%
Tie 1st Half ✓0%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters3
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Pittsburgh SteelersCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 67%+29pp
Result: Pittsburgh Steelers · 0.22
: Deep
Will Cincinnati win by 4 or more: NoConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 67%+15pp
Result: No · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 42.5 points: Over 42.5Consensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 100%+48pp
Result: Over 42.5 · 0.00
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Cincinnati wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 67%+8pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 1.56
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Cincinnati win by 4 or more0.22
Will there be more than 42.5 points0.00
Who leads at half-time1.56
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

Cincinnati controls the game from the jump, leads at the break, wins without pulling away, and both offences combine for a high-scoring affair.

Who wins?Cincinnati Bengals
Will Cincinnati win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

Pittsburgh seizes the initiative early, leads at halftime, holds on for a close final win, with plenty of points on the board for both sides.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Cincinnati win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Pittsburgh wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

Cincinnati edges ahead by the break, but Pittsburgh storms back to win convincingly in a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest.

Who wins?Pittsburgh Steelers
Will Cincinnati win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 42.5 points?Over 42.5
Who leads at half-time?Cincinnati wins 1st Half
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Cincinnati win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 42.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Cincinnati BengalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 42.5Called it!
Cincinnati wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
233%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 42.5Called it!
Pittsburgh wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
333%1 voter
Pittsburgh SteelersCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 42.5Called it!
Cincinnati wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.56How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 42 · 67%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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