The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Norway1
France4
Crowd called 4 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins this match?
82%Crowd
55%Market
+27Divergence

+27 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on France to win, and the half-time lead call too. Both aligned with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins this match?Biggest gap55%82% France+27
2Who leads at half-time?40%63% France+23
3Will both teams score?55%73% Yes+18
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?56%62% Yes+6
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedNorway 1–4 France — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
France82%
Draw10%
Norway8%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
France63%
Draw24%
Norway13%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.1k
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score?
Yes73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: FranceConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 82%+27pp
Result: France · 0.05
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 62%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: FranceCrowd
Mkt 40%Crowd 63%+23pp
Result: France · 0.21
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 73%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.15
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.05
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.29
Who leads at half-time0.21
Will both teams score0.15
Average0.17
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 31% of voters · came true

France dominant from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring game where Norway still find the net. The crowd's single most-held vision of the match.

Who wins this match?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

France in control and ahead at half-time, but the game stays tight on goals. A competitive, lower-scoring affair where both sides still register.

Who wins this match?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?France
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

France lead at the break and the goals flow, but Norway are kept off the scoresheet. A one-sided, high-scoring French performance with a clean sheet.

Who wins this match?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Will both teams score?No
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
131%344 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
212%130 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
38%91 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
48%90 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
58%84 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
64%49 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.2×
74%41 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NorwayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
83%36 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
93%29 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NorwayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
5.6×
102%20 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4344 · 31%
3 / 4372 · 34%
2 / 4251 · 23%
1 / 4109 · 10%
0 / 433 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 2.8 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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