All resolved pollsResolved · 16 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
América3
Atlético de San Luis0
The verdict

The crowd backed Two or fewer. América won 3–0.

America vs Atletico de San Luis: three calls on one match 292 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 27 points above the market's price on Two or fewer, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Two or fewer
44%Market price
+27Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
After ninety minutes,…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
there three or more…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters292World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1After ninety minutes, what is the result?
America ✓78%
San Luis15%
Tie7%
OutcomeAmerica
Voters292
ReadConsensus
2Do both teams score?
Yes57%
No ✓43%
OutcomeNo
Voters292
ReadUpset
3Are there three or more goals?
Two or fewer71%
Three or more ✓29%
OutcomeThree or more
Voters292
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

After ninety minutes, what is the result: AmericaConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 78%+14pp
Result: America · 0.08
: Deep
Do both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 57%+3pp
Result: No · 0.65
: Thin
Are there three or more goals: Two or fewerMarket
Mkt 44%Crowd 71%+27pp
Result: Three or more · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
After ninety minutes, what is the result0.08
Do both teams score0.65
Are there three or more goals1.01
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

The crowd's top vision: America grind out a clean, controlled win, keeping San Luis off the board and the game tight from start to finish.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?America
Do both teams score?No
Are there three or more goals?Two or fewer
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

An open but compact contest, both sides finding the net yet the game staying narrow, with America edging through in a low-scoring exchange.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?America
Do both teams score?Yes
Are there three or more goals?Two or fewer
Scenario 3 · 20% of voters

A flowing, end-to-end affair with both teams scoring and goals coming freely, America prevailing in the most expansive version of the match.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?America
Do both teams score?Yes
Are there three or more goals?Three or more
72% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 292 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosAfter ninety minutes, what is the result?Do both teams score?Are there three or more goals?
128%81 voters
AmericaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.2×
225%72 voters
AmericaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Two or fewerGot it wrong
0.8×
320%58 voters
AmericaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Three or moreCalled it!
1.5×
47%21 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.6×
56%17 voters
AmericaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Three or moreCalled it!
0.6×
65%15 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Two or fewerGot it wrong
0.8×
74%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.3×
83%8 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Three or moreCalled it!
1.1×
92%6 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Two or fewerGot it wrong
1.0×
101%2 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Three or moreCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (292 voters · top 10 of 11 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 317 · 6%
2 / 3140 · 48%
1 / 3109 · 37%
0 / 326 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=292). Average 1.51 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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