The matchResolvedUpset
Cape Verde0
Saudi Arabia0
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
67%Crowd
53%Market
+14Divergence

+14 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on low-scoring game, a conviction that landed.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Biggest gap53%67% No+14
2Who leads at half-time?44%36% Draw-8
3Who wins this match?40%46% Cape Verde+6
4Will both teams score?54%53% Yes-1
How it landed:UpsetCape Verde Islands 0–0 Saudi Arabia — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters923World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Cape Verde46%
Saudi Arabia34%
Draw ✓19%
OutcomeDraw
Voters923
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No ✓67%
Yes33%
OutcomeNo
Voters923
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes53%
No ✓47%
OutcomeNo
Voters923
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Draw ✓36%
Cape Verde34%
Saudi Arabia30%
OutcomeDraw
Voters923
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Cape VerdeUpset
Mkt 40%Crowd 46%+6pp
Result: Draw · 0.98
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 67%+14pp
Result: No · 0.22
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 53%-1pp
Result: No · 0.56
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DrawConsensus
Mkt 44%Crowd 36%-8pp
Result: Draw · 0.62
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.98
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.22
Will both teams score0.56
Who leads at half-time0.62
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 11% of voters

A disciplined Cape Verde side controls from the front, keeping it tight and goalless at the break, grinding out a narrow win in a match that never opens up.

Who wins this match?Cape Verde
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Cape Verde
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

The teams cancel each other out in a cagey first half, but Cape Verde find a way through after the break to claim the win in a low, scrappy contest.

Who wins this match?Cape Verde
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Draw
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Saudi Arabia take a firm grip early, lead at the break, and see out a compact, low-scoring win with their defensive shape intact throughout.

Who wins this match?Saudi Arabia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Saudi Arabia
27% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 923 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
111%99 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
2.2×
29%80 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.7×
38%74 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
2.5×
47%69 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
2.7×
56%58 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
3.5×
66%52 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
1.0×
75%49 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
1.5×
85%48 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.4×
94%41 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.8×
103%29 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (923 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-20. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 448 · 5%
3 / 4162 · 18%
2 / 4319 · 35%
1 / 4243 · 26%
0 / 4151 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=923). Average 1.69 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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