All resolved pollsResolved · 26 JUN 2026Upset
Cape VerdeCrowd's pick · 46%0
Saudi ArabiaCrowd had 34%0
The verdict

Cape Verde Islands 0–0 Saudi Arabia

Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia 923 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on No, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on No
53%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters923World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Cape Verde46%
Saudi Arabia34%
Draw ✓19%
OutcomeDraw
Voters923
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No ✓67%
Yes33%
OutcomeNo
Voters923
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes53%
No ✓47%
OutcomeNo
Voters923
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Draw ✓36%
Cape Verde34%
Saudi Arabia30%
OutcomeDraw
Voters923
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Cape VerdeUpset
Mkt 40%Crowd 46%+6pp
Result: Draw · 0.98
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 67%+14pp
Result: No · 0.22
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 53%-1pp
Result: No · 0.56
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DrawConsensus
Mkt 44%Crowd 36%-8pp
Result: Draw · 0.62
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.98
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.22
Will both teams score0.56
Who leads at half-time0.62
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 11% of voters

A disciplined Cape Verde side controls from the front, keeping it tight and goalless at the break, grinding out a narrow win in a match that never opens up.

Who wins this match?Cape Verde
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Cape Verde
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

The teams cancel each other out in a cagey first half, but Cape Verde find a way through after the break to claim the win in a low, scrappy contest.

Who wins this match?Cape Verde
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Draw
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Saudi Arabia take a firm grip early, lead at the break, and see out a compact, low-scoring win with their defensive shape intact throughout.

Who wins this match?Saudi Arabia
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Saudi Arabia
27% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 923 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
111%99 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
2.2×
29%80 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.7×
38%74 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
2.5×
47%69 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
2.7×
56%58 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
3.5×
66%52 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
1.0×
75%49 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
1.5×
85%48 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.4×
94%41 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.8×
103%29 voters
Saudi ArabiaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (923 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-20. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 448 · 5%
3 / 4162 · 18%
2 / 4319 · 35%
1 / 4243 · 26%
0 / 4151 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=923). Average 1.69 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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