All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
ChelseaCrowd's pick · 82%2
Hull CityCrowd had 10%2
The verdict

Chelsea 2–2 Hull City

Chelsea vs Hull City 663 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

60%Crowd on Yes
50%Market price
+10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters663World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Chelsea82%
Hull City10%
Tie ✓8%
OutcomeTie
Voters663
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓64%
Under 2.5 goals36%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters663
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓60%
No40%
OutcomeYes
Voters663
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ChelseaUpset
Mkt 78%Crowd 82%+4pp
Result: Tie · 1.53
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 64%-4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.26
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 60%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.32
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.53
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.26
Will both teams score0.32
Average0.70
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters

A Chelsea win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely. The crowd's dominant vision, clustering tighter than chance alone would predict.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Chelsea win with goals to spare, but Hull kept off the scoresheet. A high-scoring but one-sided affair, with the game's volume coming from one direction only.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

Chelsea grind out a tight, controlled win. Few goals, Hull shut out, the game decided by a narrow margin rather than a flowing attacking display.

Match resultChelsea
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
72% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 663 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
137%246 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
218%119 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
317%110 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
410%69 voters
ChelseaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
54%29 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
64%26 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.3×
73%17 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
82%13 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
92%12 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
101%9 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (663 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 313 · 2%
2 / 3310 · 47%
1 / 3218 · 33%
0 / 3122 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=663). Average 1.32 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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