All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Crystal PalaceWon · Crowd had 50%3
Nottingham ForestCrowd had 29%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Crystal Palace won 3–1.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest 541 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Crystal Palace, and the crowd had it.

50%Crowd on Crystal Palace
36%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters541World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Crystal Palace ✓50%
Nottingham Forest29%
Tie21%
OutcomeCrystal Palace
Voters541
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals51%
Over 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters541
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters541
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Crystal PalaceConsensus
Mkt 36%Crowd 50%+14pp
Result: Crystal Palace · 0.38
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 51%-1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 69%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.38
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters · came true

A lively Palace win in an open game, both sides finding the net in a match that spills well past the goals line.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

Forest overturn the crowd's Palace lean in a high-scoring, end-to-end affair where both teams leave their mark.

Match resultNottingham Forest
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Palace grind out a tight, low-event win, keeping Forest off the scoresheet in a controlled, shutout-flavoured victory.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
46% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 541 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%126 voters
Crystal PalaceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
211%62 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
311%61 voters
Crystal PalaceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
411%60 voters
Crystal PalaceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
59%50 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
68%43 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
77%38 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
86%33 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
94%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
104%22 voters
Crystal PalaceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (541 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3126 · 23%
2 / 3177 · 33%
1 / 3177 · 33%
0 / 361 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=541). Average 1.68 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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