All resolved pollsResolved · 25 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Turkey0
FranceWon · Crowd had 83%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — France won 0–1.

Türkiye vs France 558 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on France, and the crowd had it.

83%Crowd on France
68%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters558World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
France ✓83%
Turkiye10%
Tie7%
OutcomeFrance
Voters558
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals67%
Under 2.5 goals ✓33%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters558
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters558
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FranceConsensus
Mkt 68%Crowd 83%+15pp
Result: France · 0.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 64%Crowd 67%+3pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.90
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 64%+5pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.90
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

France in control of an open contest, goals flowing freely with both sides finding the net. The crowd's dominant vision: a winning France performance with plenty of action.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

France winning in a goal-heavy game, but keeping a clean sheet throughout. A productive French attack paired with defensive solidity, goals coming from one direction only.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters · came true

France grinding out a tight, low-scoring win with the door shut at the back. A compact, controlled victory with little room for Türkiye to threaten the scoreline.

Match resultFrance
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
72% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 558 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
141%230 voters
FranceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
218%102 voters
FranceCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
313%70 voters
FranceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
411%62 voters
FranceCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
53%19 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
63%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
73%16 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
2.4×
83%15 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
92%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
101%6 voters
TurkiyeGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (558 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 370 · 13%
2 / 3186 · 33%
1 / 3269 · 48%
0 / 333 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=558). Average 1.53 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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