All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Manchester UnitedCrowd had 38%0
Manchester CityWon · Crowd had 48%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Manchester City won 0–1.

Manchester United vs Manchester City 676 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

80%Crowd on Yes
66%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters676World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City ✓48%
Manchester United38%
Tie14%
OutcomeManchester City
Voters676
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals60%
Under 2.5 goals ✓40%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters676
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes80%
No ✓20%
OutcomeNo
Voters676
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester CityConsensus
Mkt 45%Crowd 48%+3pp
Result: Manchester City · 0.43
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 60%-3pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.72
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 66%Crowd 80%+14pp
Result: No · 1.28
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.43
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.72
Will both teams score1.28
Average0.81
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

City take the win in an open, end-to-end derby with goals at both ends and plenty of them. The crowd's dominant vision of the match.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

United pull off the upset in a free-scoring game, both sides finding the net in a high-drama Old Trafford derby.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

City grind out a narrow win in a tight affair, but United still manage a reply in a cagey, low-volume contest.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
58% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 676 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%179 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
220%138 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
312%78 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
410%65 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
57%44 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
66%43 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
76%40 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
85%35 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
93%23 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
103%17 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (676 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 344 · 7%
2 / 3146 · 22%
1 / 3305 · 45%
0 / 3181 · 27%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=676). Average 1.08 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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