All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Dallas CowboysWon · Crowd had 59%37
Washington CommandersCrowd had 41%20
The verdict

The crowd called it — Dallas Cowboys won 37–20.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders 546 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 7 points below the market's price on Dallas Cowboys, and the crowd had it.

59%Crowd on Dallas Cowboys
66%Market price
-7Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
4 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Dallas win by 4 or moreCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 50.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters546World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Dallas Cowboys ✓59%
Washington Commanders41%
OutcomeDallas Cowboys
Voters546
ReadConsensus
2Will Dallas win by 4 or more?
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 ✓59%
Washington Commanders +3.541%
OutcomeDallas Cowboys -3.5
Voters546
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 50.5 points?
Over 50.5 ✓54%
Under 50.546%
OutcomeOver 50.5
Voters546
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Dallas Cowboys ✓50%
Washington Commanders35%
Tie15%
OutcomeDallas Cowboys
Voters546
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Dallas CowboysConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 59%-7pp
Result: Dallas Cowboys · 0.34
: Deep
Will Dallas win by 4 or more: Dallas Cowboys -3.5Consensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 59%+6pp
Result: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 · 0.34
: Deep
Will there be more than 50.5 points: Over 50.5Crowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 54%+4pp
Result: Over 50.5 · 0.42
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Dallas CowboysConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 50%-6pp
Result: Dallas Cowboys · 0.40
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.34
Will Dallas win by 4 or more0.34
Will there be more than 50.5 points0.42
Who leads at half-time0.40
Average0.37
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters · came true

A high-scoring Cowboys blowout: Dallas in front at the half, pulling clear to cover comfortably while both offences push the total past the line.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Dallas win by 4 or more?Dallas Cowboys -3.5
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Over 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas Cowboys
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A controlled Cowboys win: Dallas leads at the break and grinds out a four-plus-point margin in a tighter, lower-scoring contest that stays under the total.

Who wins?Dallas Cowboys
Will Dallas win by 4 or more?Dallas Cowboys -3.5
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Under 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Dallas Cowboys
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A Commanders upset in an open game: Washington leads at half-time and holds on to win outright in a high-scoring affair that clears the total.

Who wins?Washington Commanders
Will Dallas win by 4 or more?Washington Commanders +3.5
Will there be more than 50.5 points?Over 50.5
Who leads at half-time?Washington Commanders
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 546 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Dallas win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 50.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
119%106 voters
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
Dallas Cowboys -3.5Called it!
Over 50.5Called it!
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
2.1×
215%81 voters
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
Dallas Cowboys -3.5Called it!
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
1.9×
310%55 voters
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
Washington Commanders +3.5Got it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
3.2×
48%44 voters
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
Washington Commanders +3.5Got it wrong
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
3.0×
55%27 voters
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
Dallas Cowboys -3.5Called it!
Over 50.5Called it!
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
1.1×
64%21 voters
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
Washington Commanders +3.5Got it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
0.6×
73%19 voters
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
Dallas Cowboys -3.5Called it!
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
0.9×
83%19 voters
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
Washington Commanders +3.5Got it wrong
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
0.6×
93%17 voters
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
Washington Commanders +3.5Got it wrong
Over 50.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.6×
103%16 voters
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
Dallas Cowboys -3.5Called it!
Under 50.5Got it wrong
Dallas CowboysCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (546 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.1×The most-backed combination drew 2.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4106 · 19%
3 / 4134 · 25%
2 / 4134 · 25%
1 / 4120 · 22%
0 / 452 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=546). Average 2.22 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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