The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Curaçao0
Ivory Coast2
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins this match?
53%Crowd
85%Market
-32Divergence

-32 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd far below market on Ivory Coast to win, the widest gap on the board. Result sided with the market.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins this match?Biggest gap85%53% Ivory Coast-32
2Will both teams score?36%58% Yes+22
3Who leads at half-time?64%50% Ivory Coast-14
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?48%56% No+8
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedCuraçao 0–2 Ivory Coast — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters988World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Ivory Coast53%
Curaçao31%
Draw16%
OutcomeIvory Coast
Voters988
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeNo
Voters988
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No56%
Yes44%
OutcomeNo
Voters988
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Ivory Coast50%
Draw27%
Curaçao23%
OutcomeIvory Coast
Voters988
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Ivory CoastConsensus
Mkt 85%Crowd 53%-32pp
Result: Ivory Coast · 0.34
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 36%Crowd 58%+22pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 56%+8pp
Result: No · 0.39
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Ivory CoastConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 50%-14pp
Result: Ivory Coast · 0.38
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.34
Will both teams score0.67
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.39
Who leads at half-time0.38
Average0.44
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A free-scoring Ivory Coast dominance: both sides find the net, goals flow past three, and the Ivorians lead from the first whistle to the last.

Who wins this match?Ivory Coast
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Ivory Coast
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters · came true

A controlled, low-key Ivory Coast victory: one team keeps a clean sheet, the game stays tight on volume, and the Ivorians hold the lead throughout.

Who wins this match?Ivory Coast
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Ivory Coast
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

Ivory Coast shut out Curaçao while goals pile up on their own end, a one-sided high-scoring affair with the Ivorians in front at the break.

Who wins this match?Ivory Coast
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Ivory Coast
34% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 988 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
114%141 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Ivory CoastCalled it!
2.1×
213%130 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Ivory CoastCalled it!
2.1×
37%69 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Ivory CoastCalled it!
1.4×
47%69 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Ivory CoastCalled it!
0.8×
57%68 voters
CuraçaoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
CuraçaoGot it wrong
3.8×
65%54 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
5.4×
75%49 voters
CuraçaoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
CuraçaoGot it wrong
2.1×
84%38 voters
CuraçaoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
CuraçaoGot it wrong
2.3×
93%30 voters
Ivory CoastCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.9×
103%29 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
2.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (988 voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.34How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.1×The most-backed combination drew 2.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4130 · 13%
3 / 4189 · 19%
2 / 4349 · 35%
1 / 4207 · 21%
0 / 4113 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=988). Average 2.02 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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