All resolved pollsResolved · 1 AUG 2026Upset
San LuisCrowd had 52%0
Tijuana0
The verdict

Atlético de San Luis 0–0 Tijuana

San Luis vs Tijuana 841 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on San Luis, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on San Luis
38%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score in…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters841World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
San Luis52%
Tijuana de Caliente27%
Tie21%
OutcomeTie
Voters841
ReadUpset
2Who leads at half-time?
San Luis wins 1st Half36%
Tie 1st Half33%
Tijuana de Caliente wins 1st Half31%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters841
ReadMarket
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No52%
Yes48%
OutcomeNo
Voters841
ReadCrowd
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes56%
No44%
OutcomeNo
Voters841
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: San LuisUpset
Mkt 38%Crowd 52%+14pp
Result: Tie · 0.97
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: San Luis wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 32%Crowd 36%+4pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.67
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 52%+7pp
Result: No · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 61%Crowd 56%-5pp
Result: No · 0.63
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.97
Who leads at half-time0.67
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.46
Will both teams score in regulation time0.63
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 11% of voters

San Luis seize control from the first whistle, lead at the break, and both sides contribute to an open, high-scoring contest that ends in a San Luis victory.

Who wins this match?San Luis
Who leads at half-time?San Luis wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 8% of voters

San Luis dominate and lead at half-time, but the match stays tight and low on goals, with only one side scoring in a controlled San Luis win.

Who wins this match?San Luis
Who leads at half-time?San Luis wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

An even, end-to-end first half gives way to a goal-filled second period where San Luis eventually pull clear, with both teams leaving their mark on the scoresheet.

Who wins this match?San Luis
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
24% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 841 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
111%91 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
San Luis wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.2×
28%64 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
San Luis wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
36%49 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
46%48 voters
Tijuana de CalienteGot it wrong
Tijuana de Caliente wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.5×
55%43 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
San Luis wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
65%40 voters
TieCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
3.0×
74%36 voters
Tijuana de CalienteGot it wrong
Tijuana de Caliente wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.8×
84%34 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
San Luis wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
94%33 voters
San LuisGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
104%31 voters
Tijuana de CalienteGot it wrong
Tijuana de Caliente wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (841 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.2×The most-backed combination drew 2.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-20. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 440 · 5%
3 / 4107 · 13%
2 / 4255 · 30%
1 / 4270 · 32%
0 / 4169 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=841). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.