All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Upset
Grêmio0
PalmeirasCrowd had 58%0
The verdict

Grêmio 0–0 Palmeiras

Grêmio vs Palmeiras 580 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

64%Crowd on Yes
52%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters580World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Palmeiras58%
Gremio23%
Tie ✓19%
OutcomeTie
Voters580
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters580
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters580
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: PalmeirasUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 58%+6pp
Result: Tie · 1.05
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 51%+2pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.52
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 64%+12pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.05
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.52
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.79
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

An open, attacking contest with Palmeiras in control, goals flowing at both ends and the visitors pulling clear in a lively, high-scoring win.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

A tight, disciplined Palmeiras victory, one team kept quiet, the game decided by a single moment in a low-key, controlled away performance.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A narrow Palmeiras win in a compact, scrappy affair, both sides finding the net once but the game never opening up into a free-flowing encounter.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 580 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
128%161 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
215%87 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
311%64 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
410%56 voters
GremioGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
57%40 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
67%38 voters
GremioGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
76%33 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
85%28 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
94%24 voters
GremioGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
104%24 voters
PalmeirasGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (580 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 333 · 6%
2 / 3173 · 30%
1 / 3157 · 27%
0 / 3217 · 37%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=580). Average 1.04 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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