All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Sunderland
Leeds United
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
43%Crowd
30%Market
+13Divergence

+13 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits well above the market on Sunderland, the widest gap across all three legs.

1h 03m 20sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap30%43% Sunderland+13
2Will both teams score?53%65% Yes+12
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?55%51% Under 2.5 goals-4
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario18%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters540World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sunderland43%
Leeds United37%
Tie21%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters540
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals51%
Over 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters540
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters540
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Sunderland
Mkt 30%Crowd 43%+13pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals
Mkt 55%Crowd 51%-4pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 53%Crowd 65%+12pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 18% of voters

The crowd's top vision: Sunderland take the points in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides get on the scoresheet and goals flow freely.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A sizeable cluster sees Leeds turning the table in a lively, high-scoring affair with both teams contributing to a busy scoreline.

Match resultLeeds United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tighter Sunderland win where both sides score but the game stays contained, goals are scarce and the margin is narrow.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 540 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
118%95 voters
SunderlandPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
216%87 voters
Leeds UnitedPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
311%58 voters
SunderlandPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.8×
410%53 voters
SunderlandPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.3×
510%52 voters
Leeds UnitedPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.5×
69%47 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
77%39 voters
Leeds UnitedPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
85%27 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.7×
95%25 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.2×
104%24 voters
SunderlandPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (540 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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