All resolved pollsResolved · 15 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Celta VigoCrowd had 12%1
JuventusWon · Crowd had 75%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Juventus won 1–2.

Celta Vigo vs Juventus 563 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 29 points above the market's price on Juventus, and the crowd had it.

75%Crowd on Juventus
46%Market price
+29Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters563World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Juventus ✓75%
Tie13%
Celta Vigo12%
OutcomeJuventus
Voters563
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓60%
Under 2.5 goals40%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters563
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓65%
No35%
OutcomeYes
Voters563
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: JuventusConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 75%+29pp
Result: Juventus · 0.09
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 60%+14pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.32
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 65%+13pp
Result: Yes · 0.24
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.09
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.32
Will both teams score0.24
Average0.22
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: Juventus winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a game that spills past the goals line.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tighter, more defensive read: Juventus grinding out a clean, controlled win with goals at a premium and Celta Vigo kept off the scoresheet.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow Juventus victory where both teams score but the game stays compact, with just enough goals to settle it without breaking the 2.5 threshold.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
65% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 563 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
137%207 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
216%90 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%68 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
410%56 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
55%29 voters
Celta VigoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
64%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
74%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
84%20 voters
Celta VigoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
93%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
102%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (563 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3207 · 37%
2 / 3175 · 31%
1 / 3152 · 27%
0 / 329 · 5%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=563). Average 1.99 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.