All resolved pollsResolved · 2 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Argentina Primera: Sunday's card
Aldosivi 1–2 Gimnasia La Plata · River Plate 0–1 Rosario Central · Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Barracas Central
The verdict

Aldosivi 1–2 Gimnasia La Plata · River Plate 0–1 Rosario Central · Deportivo Riestra 0–1 Barracas Central

Argentina Primera: Sunday's card 753 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 38 points above the market's price on Barracas, and it went the other way.

60%Crowd on Barracas
22%Market price
+38Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Riestra vs Barracas…Crowd beat the market
Aldosivi vs Gimnasia…Crowd & market agreed
River Plate vs Rosario…Surprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters753World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Riestra vs Barracas Central: who wins?
Barracas ✓60%
Riestra32%
Tie8%
OutcomeBarracas
Voters753
ReadCrowd
2Aldosivi vs Gimnasia (La Plata): who wins?
Gimnasia La Plata ✓58%
Aldosivi26%
Tie16%
OutcomeGimnasia La Plata
Voters753
ReadConsensus
3River Plate vs Rosario Central: who wins?
River Plate57%
Rosario ✓29%
Tie14%
OutcomeRosario
Voters753
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Riestra vs Barracas Central: who wins: BarracasCrowd
Mkt 22%Crowd 60%+38pp
Result: Barracas · 0.27
: Deep
Aldosivi vs Gimnasia (La Plata): who wins: Gimnasia La PlataConsensus
Mkt 36%Crowd 58%+22pp
Result: Gimnasia La Plata · 0.27
: Deep
River Plate vs Rosario Central: who wins: River PlateUpset
Mkt 46%Crowd 57%+11pp
Result: Rosario · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Riestra vs Barracas Central: who wins0.27
Aldosivi vs Gimnasia (La Plata): who wins0.27
River Plate vs Rosario Central: who wins0.85
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Barracas upsets the market's read, Gimnasia controls their match, and River Plate close out a home win to complete a tidy card.

Riestra vs Barracas Central: who wins?Barracas
Aldosivi vs Gimnasia (La Plata): who wins?Gimnasia La Plata
River Plate vs Rosario Central: who wins?River Plate
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters · came true

A minority vision pairing the crowd's Barracas conviction with Gimnasia's expected win, but flipping the River Plate game to a Rosario away result.

Riestra vs Barracas Central: who wins?Barracas
Aldosivi vs Gimnasia (La Plata): who wins?Gimnasia La Plata
River Plate vs Rosario Central: who wins?Rosario
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

The crowd's third cluster: Riestra hold at home while Gimnasia and River Plate both take their matches, a scenario anchored by shared Gimnasia confidence.

Riestra vs Barracas Central: who wins?Riestra
Aldosivi vs Gimnasia (La Plata): who wins?Gimnasia La Plata
River Plate vs Rosario Central: who wins?River Plate
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 753 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosRiestra vs Barracas Central: who wins?Aldosivi vs Gimnasia (La Plata): who wins?River Plate vs Rosario Central: who wins?
123%175 voters
BarracasCalled it!
Gimnasia La PlataCalled it!
River PlateGot it wrong
1.2×
211%82 voters
BarracasCalled it!
Gimnasia La PlataCalled it!
RosarioCalled it!
1.1×
310%79 voters
RiestraGot it wrong
Gimnasia La PlataCalled it!
River PlateGot it wrong
1.0×
47%55 voters
BarracasCalled it!
AldosiviGot it wrong
River PlateGot it wrong
0.8×
56%46 voters
RiestraGot it wrong
AldosiviGot it wrong
River PlateGot it wrong
1.3×
65%37 voters
BarracasCalled it!
AldosiviGot it wrong
RosarioCalled it!
1.1×
74%33 voters
BarracasCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
River PlateGot it wrong
0.8×
84%31 voters
RiestraGot it wrong
Gimnasia La PlataCalled it!
RosarioCalled it!
0.8×
93%25 voters
RiestraGot it wrong
AldosiviGot it wrong
RosarioCalled it!
1.4×
103%23 voters
BarracasCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
RosarioCalled it!
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (753 voters · top 10 of 27 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.10How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 382 · 11%
2 / 3288 · 38%
1 / 3286 · 38%
0 / 397 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=753). Average 1.47 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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