All resolved pollsResolved · 17 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
JuventusWon · Crowd had 83%5
NEC Nijmegen0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Juventus won 5–0.

Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen 631 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 7 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

56%Crowd on Yes
49%Market price
+7Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters631World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Juventus ✓83%
Nijmegen9%
Tie8%
OutcomeJuventus
Voters631
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓62%
Under 2.5 goals38%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters631
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes56%
No ✓44%
OutcomeNo
Voters631
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: JuventusConsensus
Mkt 80%Crowd 83%+3pp
Result: Juventus · 0.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 62%-4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.29
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 56%+7pp
Result: No · 0.63
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.29
Will both teams score0.63
Average0.32
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: a Juventus victory in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides contribute to a high-scoring affair.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 22% of voters · came true

A Juventus win with plenty of goals, but the visitors kept off the scoresheet entirely, all the attacking output flowing one way.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 16% of voters

A tight, controlled Juventus victory, goals at a premium and NEC kept quiet throughout, the game decided by a narrow margin.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 631 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%207 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
222%138 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
316%101 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.2×
413%80 voters
JuventusCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
53%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
63%17 voters
NijmegenGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
72%15 voters
NijmegenGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
82%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
92%12 voters
NijmegenGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
102%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (631 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.09How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3138 · 22%
2 / 3323 · 51%
1 / 3134 · 21%
0 / 336 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=631). Average 1.89 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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