All resolved pollsResolved · 7 JUL 2026Crowd & market agreed
Argentina3
Egypt2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Argentina won 3–2.

Argentina vs Egypt 1.9k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 36 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Yes
39%Market price
+36Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.9kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina advances91%
Egypt advances9%
OutcomeArgentina advances
Voters1.9k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.9k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.9k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Argentina wins 1st Half70%
Tie 1st Half20%
Egypt wins 1st Half10%
OutcomeEgypt wins 1st Half
Voters1.9k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Argentina advancesConsensus
Mkt 85%Crowd 91%+6pp
Result: Argentina advances · 0.02
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 75%+36pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 58%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.35
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Argentina wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 70%+18pp
Result: Egypt wins 1st Half · 1.34
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.02
Will both teams score in regulation time0.13
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.35
Who leads at half-time1.34
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

Argentina in control from the off, both sides scoring in an open, end-to-end contest that clears three goals with Argentina already ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A tighter, lower-scoring affair where both teams find the net but the game stays compact, Argentina leading at half-time and seeing it out.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Argentina grind out a clean, controlled win, keeping Egypt off the scoresheet and holding a lead they never relinquish from the first half onward.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.9k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
135%652 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
217%325 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
38%156 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
48%149 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
56%110 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
66%109 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.7×
73%60 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.7×
83%56 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Egypt wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.8×
92%34 voters
Egypt advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Egypt wins 1st HalfCalled it!
4.6×
102%31 voters
Egypt advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.9k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 456 · 3%
3 / 4834 · 44%
2 / 4686 · 37%
1 / 4284 · 15%
0 / 416 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.9k). Average 2.34 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.