The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Argentina3
Egypt2
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
75%Crowd
39%Market
+36Divergence

+36 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd vs market: both teams to score, crowd towering above the price. And it landed.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap39%75% Yes+36
2Who leads at half-time?52%70% Argentina wins 1st Half+18
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?48%58% Yes+10
4Who wins this match?85%91% Argentina advances+6
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedArgentina 3–2 Egypt — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.9kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina advances91%
Egypt advances9%
OutcomeArgentina advances
Voters1.9k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.9k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.9k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Argentina wins 1st Half70%
Tie 1st Half20%
Egypt wins 1st Half10%
OutcomeEgypt wins 1st Half
Voters1.9k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Argentina advancesConsensus
Mkt 85%Crowd 91%+6pp
Result: Argentina advances · 0.02
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 75%+36pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 58%+10pp
Result: Yes · 0.35
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Argentina wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 70%+18pp
Result: Egypt wins 1st Half · 1.34
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.02
Will both teams score in regulation time0.13
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.35
Who leads at half-time1.34
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

Argentina in control from the off, both sides scoring in an open, end-to-end contest that clears three goals with Argentina already ahead at the break.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A tighter, lower-scoring affair where both teams find the net but the game stays compact, Argentina leading at half-time and seeing it out.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Argentina grind out a clean, controlled win, keeping Egypt off the scoresheet and holding a lead they never relinquish from the first half onward.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.9k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
135%652 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
217%325 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
38%156 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
48%149 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
56%110 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
66%109 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.7×
73%60 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.7×
83%56 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Egypt wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.8×
92%34 voters
Egypt advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Egypt wins 1st HalfCalled it!
4.6×
102%31 voters
Egypt advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.9k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 456 · 3%
3 / 4834 · 44%
2 / 4686 · 37%
1 / 4284 · 15%
0 / 416 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.9k). Average 2.34 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching