All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
SunderlandCrowd had 12%0
ArsenalWon · Crowd had 80%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Arsenal won 0–2.

Sunderland vs Arsenal 657 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

57%Crowd on Yes
43%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters657World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Arsenal ✓80%
Sunderland12%
Tie8%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters657
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals59%
Under 2.5 goals ✓41%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters657
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes57%
No ✓43%
OutcomeNo
Voters657
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ArsenalConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 80%+13pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 59%+12pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.70
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 57%+14pp
Result: No · 0.65
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.06
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.70
Will both teams score0.65
Average0.47
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Arsenal winning an open, free-scoring contest with both sides finding the net and goals flowing freely throughout.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters · came true

A tighter, more cautious picture: Arsenal grinding out a clean, controlled win in a low-scoring affair with Sunderland kept off the scoresheet.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

Arsenal dominant and prolific but keeping a clean sheet, goals coming in volume from one side only in a one-sided attacking display.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 657 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%217 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
218%120 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
317%114 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
411%74 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
54%27 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
64%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
2.0×
73%21 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
83%18 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
92%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
102%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (657 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3120 · 18%
2 / 3218 · 33%
1 / 3279 · 42%
0 / 340 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=657). Average 1.64 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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