All resolved pollsResolved · 15 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Rayo Vallecano2
EspanyolCrowd had 51%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Espanyol. Rayo Vallecano won 2–1.

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol 648 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Espanyol, and it went the other way.

51%Crowd on Espanyol
25%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters648World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Espanyol51%
Vallecano ✓32%
Tie17%
OutcomeVallecano
Voters648
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals55%
Over 2.5 goals ✓45%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters648
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters648
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: EspanyolMarket
Mkt 25%Crowd 51%+26pp
Result: Vallecano · 0.75
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 55%+3pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.61
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 70%+16pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.75
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.61
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.51
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

An open, attacking Espanyol victory, with both sides finding the net in a match that spills past the goals line.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A tight Espanyol win, both teams getting on the scoresheet but the match staying contained, a narrow and scrappy away victory rather than a flowing one.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters · came true

A lively home win for Vallecano in an end-to-end contest, both teams scoring as the goals flow freely at the Estadio de Vallecas.

Match resultVallecano
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 648 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%127 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
217%112 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
313%82 voters
VallecanoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
49%60 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
59%56 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
68%55 voters
VallecanoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
78%53 voters
VallecanoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
85%32 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
94%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
103%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (648 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 382 · 13%
2 / 3218 · 34%
1 / 3265 · 41%
0 / 383 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=648). Average 1.46 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.