All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Miami DolphinsCrowd had 0%10
Kansas City ChiefsWon · Crowd had 100%24
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Kansas City Chiefs won 10–24.

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

75%Crowd on Yes
53%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
Kansas City win by 11…Crowd & market agreed
there be more than 45.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Kansas City Chiefs ✓100%
Miami Dolphins0%
OutcomeKansas City Chiefs
Voters4
ReadConsensus
2Will Kansas City win by 11 or more?
Yes ✓75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters4
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 45.5 points?
Over 45.550%
Under 45.5 ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 45.5
Voters4
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Kansas City wins 1st Half ✓50%
Miami wins 1st Half50%
Tie 1st Half0%
OutcomeKansas City wins 1st Half
Voters4
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Kansas City ChiefsConsensus
Mkt 86%Crowd 100%+14pp
Result: Kansas City Chiefs · 0.00
: Deep
Will Kansas City win by 11 or more: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 75%+22pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 45.5 points: Over 45.5Upset
Mkt 52%Crowd 50%-2pp
Result: Under 45.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Kansas City wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 50%-20pp
Result: Kansas City wins 1st Half · 0.50
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.00
Will Kansas City win by 11 or more0.13
Will there be more than 45.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.50
Average0.28
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A Chiefs win built on a competitive first half, Miami holding the early lead before Kansas City pulls clear without crossing the big margin threshold, in a high-scoring game.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 11 or more?No
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Kansas City dominant from the first whistle, leading at the break and pulling well clear by the final gun in a free-scoring, lopsided contest.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 11 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Over 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Kansas City wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters · came true

A low-scoring, controlled Chiefs performance, leading at half-time and grinding out a commanding margin in a game that stays well under the total.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 11 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 45.5 points?Under 45.5
Who leads at half-time?Kansas City wins 1st Half
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Kansas City win by 11 or more?Will there be more than 45.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Over 45.5Got it wrong
Miami wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
4.0×
225%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 45.5Got it wrong
Kansas City wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
325%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 45.5Called it!
Kansas City wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
425%1 voter
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Under 45.5Called it!
Miami wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.38How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.0×The most-backed combination drew 4.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 41 · 25%
3 / 42 · 50%
2 / 40 · 0%
1 / 41 · 25%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 2.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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