All resolved pollsResolved · 17 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
FulhamWon · Crowd had 56%1
Hull CityCrowd had 24%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Fulham won 1–0.

Fulham vs Hull City 537 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Yes
55%Market price
+10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters537World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Fulham ✓56%
Hull City24%
Tie20%
OutcomeFulham
Voters537
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters537
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No ✓35%
OutcomeNo
Voters537
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FulhamConsensus
Mkt 56%Crowd 56%0pp
Result: Fulham · 0.29
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 52%+6pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 65%+10pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.29
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.85
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

The crowd's most vivid vision: Fulham winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net and goals flowing freely throughout.

Match resultFulham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters · came true

A tight, controlled Fulham victory, with Hull shut out and the game decided by a single moment of quality in a low-tempo affair.

Match resultFulham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

Fulham edging it in a compact, scrappy match where Hull nicked a consolation but the game never truly opened up.

Match resultFulham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 537 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%136 voters
FulhamCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
214%75 voters
FulhamCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
311%61 voters
FulhamCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
410%53 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
58%45 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
66%34 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
76%33 voters
Hull CityGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
86%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
95%28 voters
FulhamCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
104%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (537 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 375 · 14%
2 / 3152 · 28%
1 / 3236 · 44%
0 / 374 · 14%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=537). Average 1.42 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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