All resolved pollsResolved · 15 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ElcheCrowd had 6%2
Real MadridWon · Crowd had 84%3
The verdict

The crowd called it — Real Madrid won 2–3.

Elche vs Real Madrid 642 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 6 points above the market's price on Real Madrid, and the crowd had it.

84%Crowd on Real Madrid
78%Market price
+6Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters642World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Madrid ✓84%
Tie10%
Elche6%
OutcomeReal Madrid
Voters642
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓71%
Under 2.5 goals29%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters642
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓56%
No44%
OutcomeYes
Voters642
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real MadridConsensus
Mkt 78%Crowd 84%+6pp
Result: Real Madrid · 0.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 70%Crowd 71%+1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.17
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 56%-3pp
Result: Yes · 0.39
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.17
Will both teams score0.39
Average0.20
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters · came true

The crowd's modal vision: Real Madrid winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a goal-filled game.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 27% of voters

A sizeable cluster saw Real Madrid winning a high-scoring affair but keeping Elche off the scoresheet entirely, goals flowing one way only.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A quieter vision: Real Madrid grinding out a tight, low-scoring win with Elche unable to register, the game decided by a narrow margin.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
76% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 642 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
137%237 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
227%173 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
312%76 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
48%54 voters
Real MadridCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
53%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.8×
63%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
72%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
82%14 voters
ElcheGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
92%14 voters
ElcheGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.2×
101%8 voters
ElcheGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (642 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.09How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3237 · 37%
2 / 3260 · 40%
1 / 3122 · 19%
0 / 323 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=642). Average 2.11 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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