All resolved pollsResolved · 10 SEPT 2026Upset
PSV Eindhoven1
Shakhtar Donetsk1
The verdict

PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Shakhtar Donetsk

PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk 591 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

51%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
32%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters591World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Eindhoven53%
Shakhtar29%
Tie ✓18%
OutcomeTie
Voters591
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓51%
Over 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters591
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters591
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: EindhovenUpset
Mkt 69%Crowd 53%-16pp
Result: Tie · 1.04
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 32%Crowd 51%+19pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 66%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.04
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A lively Eindhoven win with goals flowing freely from both sides, the crowd's most vivid and tightly clustered vision of the night.

Match resultEindhoven
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

Eindhoven grind out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Shakhtar off the board in a controlled, defensive affair.

Match resultEindhoven
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Shakhtar nick a result in a cagey, low-scoring contest where both sides find the net but goals are scarce.

Match resultShakhtar
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 591 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%151 voters
EindhovenGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
214%80 voters
EindhovenGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%68 voters
ShakhtarGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
49%54 voters
EindhovenGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
59%51 voters
ShakhtarGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
67%40 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
76%37 voters
ShakhtarGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
85%28 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%26 voters
EindhovenGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
104%24 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (591 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 340 · 7%
2 / 3174 · 29%
1 / 3335 · 57%
0 / 342 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=591). Average 1.36 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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