The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Brazil2
Japan1
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
77%Crowd
49%Market
+28Divergence

+28 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 28 points above market on both teams scoring. Aligned with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap49%77% Yes+28
2Who leads at half-time?40%65% Brazil wins 1st Half+25
3Who wins this match?73%84% Brazil advances+11
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?47%55% Yes+8
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedBrazil 2–1 Japan — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Brazil advances84%
Japan advances16%
OutcomeBrazil advances
Voters2k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes77%
No23%
OutcomeYes
Voters2k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Brazil wins 1st Half65%
Tie 1st Half22%
Japan wins 1st Half13%
OutcomeJapan wins 1st Half
Voters2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Brazil advancesConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 84%+11pp
Result: Brazil advances · 0.05
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 55%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 77%+28pp
Result: Yes · 0.11
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Brazil wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 40%Crowd 65%+25pp
Result: Japan wins 1st Half · 1.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.05
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.40
Will both teams score in regulation time0.11
Who leads at half-time1.23
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

A high-scoring, open contest with Brazil in control from the off. Goals at both ends, plenty of them, and the Seleção dictating terms before the break.

Who wins this match?Brazil advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Brazil wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A tight but entertaining affair. Both teams find the net, Brazil edges ahead early, but the goals stay scarce enough to keep it under three.

Who wins this match?Brazil advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Brazil wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A cagey opening half gives way to a lively second. Both teams score, the goals pile up, but neither side has broken the deadlock by the interval.

Who wins this match?Brazil advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
129%588 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
219%384 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
37%135 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
47%135 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
57%130 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Brazil wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
66%111 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
74%70 voters
Japan advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Japan wins 1st HalfCalled it!
4.0×
83%65 voters
Japan advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Japan wins 1st HalfCalled it!
4.5×
93%64 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.7×
102%47 voters
Brazil advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Japan wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (2k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 447 · 2%
3 / 4836 · 42%
2 / 4804 · 40%
1 / 4273 · 14%
0 / 437 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=2k). Average 2.29 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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