All resolved pollsResolved · 15 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
Deportivo Alavés0
ValenciaWon · Crowd had 69%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Valencia won 0–1.

Alavés vs Valencia 643 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 48 points above the market's price on Valencia, and the crowd had it.

69%Crowd on Valencia
21%Market price
+48Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters643World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Valencia ✓69%
Alaves20%
Tie12%
OutcomeValencia
Voters643
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters643
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes59%
No ✓41%
OutcomeNo
Voters643
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ValenciaCrowd
Mkt 21%Crowd 69%+48pp
Result: Valencia · 0.15
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 41%Crowd 50%+9pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 59%+11pp
Result: No · 0.70
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.15
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.50
Will both teams score0.70
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

Valencia winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides contributing goals and the net bulging more than twice.

Match resultValencia
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters · came true

Valencia grinding out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Alavés off the scoresheet in a controlled, shut-out performance.

Match resultValencia
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Valencia edging a close, scrappy affair where both teams score but the game stays narrow and goals remain scarce.

Match resultValencia
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 643 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
129%189 voters
ValenciaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
219%121 voters
ValenciaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
312%78 voters
ValenciaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
48%53 voters
ValenciaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
57%44 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
66%37 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
75%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
84%28 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
94%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
103%18 voters
AlavesGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (643 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3121 · 19%
2 / 3197 · 31%
1 / 3269 · 42%
0 / 356 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=643). Average 1.6 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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