All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
BahiaCrowd had 13%0
FlamengoWon · Crowd had 76%3
The verdict

The crowd called it — Flamengo won 0–3.

Bahia vs Flamengo 538 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 30 points above the market's price on Flamengo, and the crowd had it.

76%Crowd on Flamengo
46%Market price
+30Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario35%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters538World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Flamengo ✓76%
Bahia13%
Tie11%
OutcomeFlamengo
Voters538
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓53%
Under 2.5 goals47%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters538
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters538
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FlamengoConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 76%+30pp
Result: Flamengo · 0.09
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 53%-5pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.44
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 64%+4pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.09
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.44
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 35% of voters

A Flamengo victory in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely. The crowd's dominant vision, clustering well above what independent answers

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

Flamengo grind out a tight, controlled win, keeping Bahia off the scoresheet in a low-scoring, disciplined affair.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Flamengo win a close, scrappy match where both teams score but chances are limited and the final tally stays modest.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
68% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 538 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
135%186 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
219%101 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
315%81 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
48%42 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
55%25 voters
BahiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
64%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
73%17 voters
BahiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
83%17 voters
BahiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.4×
93%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
103%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (538 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 342 · 8%
2 / 3304 · 57%
1 / 3152 · 28%
0 / 340 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=538). Average 1.65 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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