All resolved pollsResolved · 24 SEPT 2026Upset
NetherlandsCrowd had 25%1
GermanyCrowd's pick · 58%1
The verdict

Netherlands 1–1 Germany

Netherlands vs Germany 476 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 22 points above the market's price on Germany, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Germany
36%Market price
+22Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters476World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Germany58%
Netherlands25%
Tie ✓17%
OutcomeTie
Voters476
ReadUpset
2Who leads at half-time?
Germany wins 1st Half ✓49%
Tie 1st Half29%
Netherlands wins 1st Half23%
OutcomeGermany wins 1st Half
Voters476
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals58%
Under 2.5 goals ✓42%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters476
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
Yes ✓74%
No26%
OutcomeYes
Voters476
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GermanyUpset
Mkt 36%Crowd 58%+22pp
Result: Tie · 1.09
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Germany wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 30%Crowd 49%+19pp
Result: Germany wins 1st Half · 0.40
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 64%Crowd 58%-6pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.67
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 74%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.14
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.09
Who leads at half-time0.40
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.67
Will both teams score0.14
Average0.57
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A dominant Germany performance: leading at the break, goals flowing from both ends, and a comfortable German victory sealing the night.

Match resultGermany
Who leads at half-time?Germany wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 8% of voters

Germany controlled and clinical: ahead at half-time, both sides finding the net, but the game staying tight and low-scoring through to the final whistle.

Match resultGermany
Who leads at half-time?Germany wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A Dutch-driven open game: Netherlands in front at the break, goals exchanged freely, and the Netherlands holding on for a high-tempo victory.

Match resultNetherlands
Who leads at half-time?Netherlands wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
39% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 476 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWho leads at half-time?Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%117 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Germany wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.0×
28%39 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Germany wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
37%31 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.6×
45%22 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
55%22 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Germany wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
64%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.7×
74%19 voters
TieCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.9×
83%16 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
Netherlands wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.9×
93%14 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
Germany wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
103%13 voters
NetherlandsGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
3.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (476 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.0×The most-backed combination drew 2.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 48 · 2%
3 / 474 · 16%
2 / 4236 · 50%
1 / 4138 · 29%
0 / 420 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=476). Average 1.82 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.