All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
New York GiantsWon · Crowd had 67%36
Arizona CardinalsCrowd had 33%24
The verdict

The crowd called it — New York Giants won 36–24.

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on New York Giants, and the crowd had it.

67%Crowd on New York Giants
44%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsCrowd beat the market
Arizona win by 2 or moreSurprise
there be more than 44.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Giants ✓67%
Arizona Cardinals33%
OutcomeNew York Giants
Voters6
ReadCrowd
2Will Arizona win by 2 or more?
Yes50%
No ✓50%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 44.5 points?
Over 44.5 ✓50%
Under 44.550%
OutcomeOver 44.5
Voters6
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
New York G ✓50%
Arizona33%
Tie17%
OutcomeNew York G
Voters6
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York GiantsCrowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 67%+23pp
Result: New York Giants · 0.22
: Deep
Will Arizona win by 2 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 50%-5pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 44.5 points: Over 44.5Crowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 50%+2pp
Result: Over 44.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New York GCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 50%+3pp
Result: New York G · 0.39
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.22
Will Arizona win by 2 or more0.50
Will there be more than 44.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.39
Average0.40
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters · came true

The crowd's modal vision: Giants in control from the first half, a free-scoring game, but Arizona never pulling clear enough to cover a spread.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will Arizona win by 2 or more?No
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?New York G
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A Cardinals-dominant picture, Arizona ahead at the break and pulling away decisively in a high-scoring, open contest.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Will Arizona win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Arizona
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A grinding Cardinals win, defences holding firm through a tight first half before Arizona edged clear by two scores or more.

Who wins?Arizona Cardinals
Will Arizona win by 2 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 44.5 points?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Arizona win by 2 or more?Will there be more than 44.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
New York GiantsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Over 44.5Called it!
New York GCalled it!
4.0×
217%1 voter
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 44.5Called it!
ArizonaGot it wrong
6.1×
317%1 voter
Arizona CardinalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
11.9×
417%1 voter
New York GiantsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 44.5Got it wrong
ArizonaGot it wrong
3.0×
517%1 voter
New York GiantsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 44.5Got it wrong
New York GCalled it!
2.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.74How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.0×The most-backed combination drew 4.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 42 · 33%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 42 · 33%
1 / 41 · 17%
0 / 41 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 2.17 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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