All resolved pollsResolved · 26 JUL 2026Upset
Brasileirão Super Sunday: five Round 20 games
Flamengo 1–1 São Paulo · Grêmio 1–1 Fluminense · Palmeiras 1–2 Atlético-MG · Bahia 1–1 Corinthians · Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo
The verdict

Flamengo 1–1 São Paulo · Grêmio 1–1 Fluminense · Palmeiras 1–2 Atlético-MG · Bahia 1–1 Corinthians · Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo

Brasileirão Super Sunday: five Round 20 games 1.2k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 42 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
27%Market price
+42Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 5questions the crowd called · 4 surprises
Flamengo vs São Paulo:…Surprise
Grêmio vs Fluminense:…Surprise
Palmeiras beat Atlético…Surprise
Cruzeiro beat BotafogoSurprise
Corinthians win away at…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario11%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Flamengo vs São Paulo: who wins in regulation?
Flamengo60%
Sao Paulo33%
Tie ✓6%
OutcomeTie
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Grêmio vs Fluminense: who takes it?
Fluminense52%
Gremio29%
Tie ✓19%
OutcomeTie
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
3Will Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro?
Yes76%
No ✓24%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
4Will Cruzeiro beat Botafogo?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
5Will Corinthians win away at Bahia?
Yes69%
No ✓31%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Flamengo vs São Paulo: who wins in regulation: FlamengoUpset
Mkt 65%Crowd 60%-5pp
Result: Tie · 1.35
: Deep
Grêmio vs Fluminense: who takes it: FluminenseUpset
Mkt 35%Crowd 52%+17pp
Result: Tie · 1.01
: Deep
Will Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro: YesUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 76%+16pp
Result: No · 1.16
: Deep
Will Cruzeiro beat Botafogo: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 61%+7pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
Will Corinthians win away at Bahia: YesMarket
Mkt 27%Crowd 69%+42pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Flamengo vs São Paulo: who wins in regulation1.35
Grêmio vs Fluminense: who takes it1.01
Will Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro1.16
Will Cruzeiro beat Botafogo0.74
Will Corinthians win away at Bahia0.95
Average1.04
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 11% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Flamengo, Fluminense, and Palmeiras all advance their causes, Cruzeiro topples Botafogo, and Corinthians pull off the away win at Bahia.

Flamengo vs São Paulo: who wins in regulation?Flamengo
Grêmio vs Fluminense: who takes it?Fluminense
Will Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro?Yes
Will Cruzeiro beat Botafogo?Yes
Will Corinthians win away at Bahia?Yes
Scenario 2 · 9% of voters

Same Flamengo-Fluminense-Palmeiras spine, but Botafogo holds off Cruzeiro. Corinthians still win away, making this the scenario where one favourite stumbles and the big outsider

Flamengo vs São Paulo: who wins in regulation?Flamengo
Grêmio vs Fluminense: who takes it?Fluminense
Will Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro?Yes
Will Cruzeiro beat Botafogo?No
Will Corinthians win away at Bahia?Yes
Scenario 3 · 5% of voters

Grêmio flips the Leg 2 script in this version, while Flamengo, Palmeiras, Cruzeiro, and Corinthians all deliver for the crowd.

Flamengo vs São Paulo: who wins in regulation?Flamengo
Grêmio vs Fluminense: who takes it?Gremio
Will Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro?Yes
Will Cruzeiro beat Botafogo?Yes
Will Corinthians win away at Bahia?Yes
25% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosFlamengo vs São Paulo: who wins in regulation?Grêmio vs Fluminense: who takes it?Will Palmeiras beat Atlético Mineiro?Will Cruzeiro beat Botafogo?Will Corinthians win away at Bahia?
111%129 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
FluminenseGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
29%103 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
FluminenseGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
35%64 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
GremioGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
45%54 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
FluminenseGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
54%52 voters
Sao PauloGot it wrong
FluminenseGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
64%48 voters
Sao PauloGot it wrong
GremioGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
74%42 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
GremioGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
83%39 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
FluminenseGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
93%36 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
TieCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
103%35 voters
FlamengoGot it wrong
FluminenseGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 70 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.10How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-9The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-9; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
5 / 56 · 1%
4 / 511 · 1%
3 / 584 · 7%
2 / 5299 · 25%
1 / 5501 · 42%
0 / 5293 · 25%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.19 / 5.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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