The matchResolvedUpset
South Africa1
South Korea0
Crowd called 0 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
67%Crowd
48%Market
+19Divergence

+19 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring, then the game stayed shut.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap48%67% Yes+19
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?48%58% Yes+10
3Who leads at half-time?43%52% South Korea+9
4Who wins this match?60%61% South Korea+1
How it landed:UpsetSouth Africa 1–0 South Korea — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters983World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
South Korea61%
South Africa29%
Draw10%
OutcomeSouth Africa
Voters983
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeNo
Voters983
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeNo
Voters983
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
South Korea52%
South Africa26%
Draw22%
OutcomeDraw
Voters983
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: South KoreaUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 61%+1pp
Result: South Africa · 0.89
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 58%+10pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 67%+19pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: South KoreaMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 52%+9pp
Result: Draw · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.89
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.67
Will both teams score0.90
Who leads at half-time0.95
Average0.85
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

South Korea in control from the off, leading at the break and seeing out an open, end-to-end contest with goals at both ends.

Who wins this match?South Korea
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?South Korea
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

South Africa seize the initiative early, lead at half-time, and trade blows with South Korea in a lively, high-scoring affair.

Who wins this match?South Africa
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?South Africa
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 983 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
121%210 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
1.7×
210%99 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
3.4×
39%86 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
South KoreaGot it wrong
2.0×
48%82 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
0.9×
56%57 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
South KoreaGot it wrong
1.0×
64%39 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
74%38 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
1.8×
84%37 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.0×
93%29 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
0.5×
103%28 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (983 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 410 · 1%
3 / 4117 · 12%
2 / 4253 · 26%
1 / 4346 · 35%
0 / 4257 · 26%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=983). Average 1.26 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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