All resolved pollsResolved · 24 JUN 2026Upset
South AfricaWon · Crowd had 29%1
South KoreaCrowd's pick · 61%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. South Africa won 1–0.

South Africa vs. South Korea 983 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
48%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters983World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
South Korea61%
South Africa ✓29%
Draw10%
OutcomeSouth Africa
Voters983
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes58%
No ✓42%
OutcomeNo
Voters983
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters983
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
South Korea52%
South Africa26%
Draw ✓22%
OutcomeDraw
Voters983
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: South KoreaUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 61%+1pp
Result: South Africa · 0.89
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 58%+10pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 67%+19pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: South KoreaMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 52%+9pp
Result: Draw · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.89
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.67
Will both teams score0.90
Who leads at half-time0.95
Average0.85
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

South Korea in control from the off, leading at the break and seeing out an open, end-to-end contest with goals at both ends.

Who wins this match?South Korea
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?South Korea
Scenario 2 · 10% of voters

South Africa seize the initiative early, lead at half-time, and trade blows with South Korea in a lively, high-scoring affair.

Who wins this match?South Africa
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?South Africa
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 983 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
121%210 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
1.7×
210%99 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
3.4×
39%86 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
South KoreaGot it wrong
2.0×
48%82 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
South KoreaGot it wrong
0.9×
56%57 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
South KoreaGot it wrong
1.0×
64%39 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
74%38 voters
South AfricaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
1.8×
84%37 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
2.0×
93%29 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South AfricaGot it wrong
0.5×
103%28 voters
South KoreaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (983 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.31How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 410 · 1%
3 / 4117 · 12%
2 / 4253 · 26%
1 / 4346 · 35%
0 / 4257 · 26%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=983). Average 1.26 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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