All resolved pollsResolved · 20 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Paris Saint-Germain FC4
BarcelonaCrowd had 54%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Barcelona. Paris Saint-Germain FC won 4–2.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona 569 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 16 points above the market's price on Barcelona, and it went the other way.

54%Crowd on Barcelona
38%Market price
+16Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario32%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters569World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Barcelona54%
PSG ✓33%
Tie14%
OutcomePSG
Voters569
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓66%
Under 2.5 goals34%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters569
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓79%
No21%
OutcomeYes
Voters569
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BarcelonaMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 54%+16pp
Result: PSG · 0.76
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 80%Crowd 66%-14pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.23
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 79%Crowd 79%0pp
Result: Yes · 0.09
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.76
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.23
Will both teams score0.09
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 32% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Barcelona controlling an open, attacking contest where both sides find the net in a multi-goal affair.

Match resultBarcelona
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 22% of voters · came true

A minority but coherent read: PSG edging a free-scoring, end-to-end match with both teams leaving their mark on the scoresheet.

Match resultPSG
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A tight Barcelona win where both teams score but the game stays close and contained, goals scarce despite an open exchange.

Match resultBarcelona
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 569 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
132%181 voters
BarcelonaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
222%123 voters
PSGCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
39%52 voters
BarcelonaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%46 voters
BarcelonaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
56%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
66%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
75%31 voters
PSGCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
85%26 voters
BarcelonaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
94%22 voters
PSGCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
102%10 voters
PSGCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (569 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3123 · 22%
2 / 3254 · 45%
1 / 3138 · 24%
0 / 354 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=569). Average 1.78 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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