The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
South Africa0
Canada1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
69%Crowd
46%Market
+23Divergence

+23 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring. The poll's widest gap, and it diverged from the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap46%69% Yes+23
2Who wins this match?72%65% Canada-7
3Who leads at half-time?39%43% Canada wins 1st Half+4
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?58%58% No0
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedSouth Africa 0–1 Canada — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Canada65%
South Africa35%
OutcomeCanada
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No58%
Yes42%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes69%
No31%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Canada wins 1st Half43%
Tie 1st Half29%
South Africa wins 1st Half28%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.5k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: CanadaConsensus
Mkt 72%Crowd 65%-7pp
Result: Canada · 0.24
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 58%0pp
Result: No · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 69%+23pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Canada wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 43%+4pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.77
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.24
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.35
Will both teams score in regulation time0.95
Who leads at half-time0.77
Average0.58
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

A free-flowing Canada victory: both sides find the net in a higher-scoring game, with Canada asserting control from the first whistle.

Who wins this match?Canada
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Canada wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight but open contest: Canada edges ahead at the break and holds on, with both teams scoring but the game staying low on total goals.

Who wins this match?Canada
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Canada wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A South Africa upset: both teams contribute to the scoresheet, but South Africa seizes the initiative early and leads the way into the break.

Who wins this match?South Africa
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?South Africa wins 1st Half
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
115%226 voters
CanadaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Canada wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.9×
214%205 voters
CanadaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Canada wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.2×
38%121 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
South Africa wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.1×
47%99 voters
CanadaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Canada wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
56%93 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
South Africa wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
2.2×
66%88 voters
CanadaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.7×
76%85 voters
CanadaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.7×
85%79 voters
CanadaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.0×
94%62 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
2.3×
104%56 voters
South AfricaGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-12. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 488 · 6%
3 / 4282 · 19%
2 / 4529 · 35%
1 / 4485 · 32%
0 / 4119 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 1.82 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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