All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Washington CommandersCrowd's pick · 67%13
Indianapolis ColtsWon · Crowd had 33%30
The verdict

The crowd backed Washington Commanders. Indianapolis Colts won 13–30.

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 30 points above the market's price on Washington Commanders, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Washington Commanders
37%Market price
+30Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsMarket beat the crowd
Indianapolis win by 4…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 46.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Washington Commanders67%
Indianapolis Colts ✓33%
OutcomeIndianapolis Colts
Voters6
ReadMarket
2Will Indianapolis win by 4 or more?
No67%
Yes ✓33%
OutcomeYes
Voters6
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 46.5 points?
Over 46.550%
Under 46.5 ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 46.5
Voters6
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Indianapolis ✓33%
Tie33%
Washington33%
OutcomeIndianapolis
Voters6
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Washington CommandersMarket
Mkt 37%Crowd 67%+30pp
Result: Indianapolis Colts · 0.90
: Deep
Will Indianapolis win by 4 or more: NoMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.90
: Deep
Will there be more than 46.5 points: Over 46.5Upset
Mkt 52%Crowd 50%-2pp
Result: Under 46.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: IndianapolisConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 33%-22pp
Result: Indianapolis · 0.67
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Indianapolis win by 4 or more0.90
Will there be more than 46.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.67
Average0.74
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Washington controls the game, leads at the break, keeps it close enough to deny a big Colts margin, in an open and high-scoring contest.

Who wins?Washington Commanders
Will Indianapolis win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Washington
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A minority picture of Colts control from the front, winning but not by a commanding margin, in a tight and low-scoring defensive affair.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Indianapolis win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Under 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A second Colts scenario, more emphatic: Indianapolis leads at half, pulls clear by four or more, and both offences combine to push the total over the line.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Indianapolis win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 46.5 points?Over 46.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis
67% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Indianapolis win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 46.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%2 voters
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Over 46.5Got it wrong
WashingtonGot it wrong
4.5×
217%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Under 46.5Called it!
IndianapolisCalled it!
4.6×
317%1 voter
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Over 46.5Got it wrong
IndianapolisCalled it!
9.3×
417%1 voter
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
Under 46.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
2.3×
517%1 voter
Washington CommandersGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Under 46.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
4.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.76How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.5×The most-backed combination drew 4.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 42 · 33%
2 / 41 · 17%
1 / 41 · 17%
0 / 42 · 33%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.