All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Coventry City0
Brighton and Hove Albion5
The verdict

The crowd backed Under 2.5 goals. Brighton and Hove Albion won 0–5.

Coventry City vs Brighton 663 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

56%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
46%Market price
+10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters663World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Brighton ✓53%
Coventry27%
Tie20%
OutcomeBrighton
Voters663
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals56%
Over 2.5 goals ✓44%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters663
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No ✓39%
OutcomeNo
Voters663
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BrightonConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 53%+1pp
Result: Brighton · 0.33
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 56%+10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 61%+5pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.33
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.63
Will both teams score0.74
Average0.57
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

A Brighton win in an open, end-to-end contest, goals flowing freely with both sides finding the net in a lively away victory.

Match resultBrighton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Brighton grinding out a tight, controlled win, keeping Coventry scoreless in a compact, low-event match with little attacking exchange.

Match resultBrighton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow Brighton win with both sides scoring once, the game settled early and played out quietly with few further chances.

Match resultBrighton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
47% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 663 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%135 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
215%98 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
312%80 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
48%55 voters
CoventryGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
58%53 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
68%51 voters
CoventryGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
77%49 voters
CoventryGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
86%39 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.6×
96%39 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.3×
104%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (663 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 339 · 6%
2 / 3268 · 40%
1 / 3248 · 37%
0 / 3108 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=663). Average 1.36 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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