All resolved pollsResolved · 2 JUL 2026Crowd & market agreed
Spain3
Austria0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Spain won 3–0.

Spain vs Austria 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 37 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

73%Crowd on Yes
36%Market price
+37Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Spain advances81%
Austria advances19%
OutcomeSpain advances
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes73%
No27%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Spain wins 1st Half67%
Tie 1st Half19%
Austria wins 1st Half13%
OutcomeSpain wins 1st Half
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Spain advancesConsensus
Mkt 89%Crowd 81%-8pp
Result: Spain advances · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 58%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 36%Crowd 73%+37pp
Result: No · 1.07
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Spain wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 67%+13pp
Result: Spain wins 1st Half · 0.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.07
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.35
Will both teams score in regulation time1.07
Who leads at half-time0.16
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

A high-scoring, open contest: Spain in control from the first whistle, both sides finding the net, and the goals flowing freely past three.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Spain ahead at the break and Austria grabbing a consolation, but the game stays tight on total goals with fewer than three on the board.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Spain dominant and clean, leading at half-time and keeping Austria off the scoresheet in a controlled, low-volume win.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
130%425 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
216%234 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.0×
39%126 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.4×
47%105 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
55%74 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.8×
65%70 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
74%56 voters
Austria advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Austria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.7×
83%41 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.6×
93%38 voters
Austria advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Austria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.5×
102%33 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Austria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4105 · 7%
3 / 4587 · 41%
2 / 4468 · 33%
1 / 4215 · 15%
0 / 458 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.