The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Spain3
Austria0
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
73%Crowd
36%Market
+37Divergence

+37 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran far above market on both teams scoring, a call that diverged from the clean-sheet result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap36%73% Yes+37
2Who leads at half-time?54%67% Spain wins 1st Half+13
3Who wins this match?89%81% Spain advances-8
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?51%58% Yes+7
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedSpain 3–0 Austria — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Spain advances81%
Austria advances19%
OutcomeSpain advances
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes58%
No42%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes73%
No27%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Spain wins 1st Half67%
Tie 1st Half19%
Austria wins 1st Half13%
OutcomeSpain wins 1st Half
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Spain advancesConsensus
Mkt 89%Crowd 81%-8pp
Result: Spain advances · 0.07
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 58%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 36%Crowd 73%+37pp
Result: No · 1.07
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Spain wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 67%+13pp
Result: Spain wins 1st Half · 0.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.07
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.35
Will both teams score in regulation time1.07
Who leads at half-time0.16
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

A high-scoring, open contest: Spain in control from the first whistle, both sides finding the net, and the goals flowing freely past three.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Spain ahead at the break and Austria grabbing a consolation, but the game stays tight on total goals with fewer than three on the board.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Spain dominant and clean, leading at half-time and keeping Austria off the scoresheet in a controlled, low-volume win.

Who wins this match?Spain advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Spain wins 1st Half
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
130%425 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.3×
216%234 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.0×
39%126 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
1.4×
47%105 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Spain wins 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
55%74 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.8×
65%70 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.0×
74%56 voters
Austria advancesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Austria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.7×
83%41 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.6×
93%38 voters
Austria advancesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Austria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.5×
102%33 voters
Spain advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Austria wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4105 · 7%
3 / 4587 · 41%
2 / 4468 · 33%
1 / 4215 · 15%
0 / 458 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.33 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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