The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Portugal5
Uzbekistan0
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs; market called 4.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
84%Crowd
59%Market
+25Divergence

+25 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 25 points above the market on Portugal's half-time lead, and that gap aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap59%84% Portugal+25
2Will both teams score?39%61% Yes+22
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?60%72% Yes+12
4Who wins this match?81%90% Portugal+9
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedPortugal 5–0 Uzbekistan — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Portugal90%
Uzbekistan6%
Draw4%
OutcomePortugal
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.4k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Portugal84%
Draw8%
Uzbekistan8%
OutcomePortugal
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: PortugalConsensus
Mkt 81%Crowd 90%+9pp
Result: Portugal · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 72%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 39%Crowd 61%+22pp
Result: No · 0.74
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: PortugalConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 84%+25pp
Result: Portugal · 0.04
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.02
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.16
Will both teams score0.74
Who leads at half-time0.04
Average0.24
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters

Portugal dominant from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring, open game where both sides find the net.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
Scenario 2 · 23% of voters · came true

Portugal in control and clinical, goals flowing but only one side scoring, with the lead already secured by half-time.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

Portugal ahead at the interval in a tighter, lower-scoring contest where both teams contribute to the tally.

Who wins this match?Portugal
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Portugal
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
137%528 voters
PortugalCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
PortugalCalled it!
1.1×
223%326 voters
PortugalCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
PortugalCalled it!
1.1×
310%148 voters
PortugalCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
PortugalCalled it!
0.8×
410%141 voters
PortugalCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
PortugalCalled it!
1.2×
52%35 voters
PortugalCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.8×
62%27 voters
UzbekistanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
UzbekistanGot it wrong
9.1×
72%26 voters
PortugalCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
UzbekistanGot it wrong
0.6×
81%18 voters
PortugalCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.0×
91%16 voters
PortugalCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
1.4×
101%12 voters
PortugalCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
UzbekistanGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4326 · 23%
3 / 4693 · 49%
2 / 4272 · 19%
1 / 4103 · 7%
0 / 421 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.85 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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