All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Upset
RomaCrowd had 29%2
Inter Milan2
The verdict

AS Roma 2–2 Internazionale

Roma vs Inter 601 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Inter, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on Inter
37%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters601World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Inter52%
Roma29%
Tie ✓19%
OutcomeTie
Voters601
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters601
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters601
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: InterUpset
Mkt 37%Crowd 52%+15pp
Result: Tie · 1.01
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 51%-8pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 72%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.01
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.16
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Inter taking the win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultInter
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A home-side upset framed as an attacking affair, Roma claiming three points in a lively, mutually scoring match.

Match resultRoma
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Inter grinding out a narrow win in a tight, low-scoring game where both sides manage to get on the scoresheet despite few chances.

Match resultInter
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 601 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%153 voters
InterGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
213%76 voters
RomaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
312%73 voters
InterGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
411%65 voters
InterGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
59%53 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
68%48 voters
RomaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
76%34 voters
RomaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
85%32 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
94%22 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
103%20 voters
InterGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (601 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 332 · 5%
2 / 3291 · 48%
1 / 3179 · 30%
0 / 399 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=601). Average 1.43 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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