All resolved pollsResolved · 3 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
CroatiaCrowd had 13%0
EnglandWon · Crowd had 75%7
The verdict

The crowd called it — England won 0–7.

Croatia vs England 602 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on England, and the crowd had it.

75%Crowd on England
51%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario42%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters602World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
England ✓75%
Croatia13%
Tie11%
OutcomeEngland
Voters602
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓58%
Under 2.5 goals42%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters602
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes75%
No ✓25%
OutcomeNo
Voters602
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: EnglandConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 75%+24pp
Result: England · 0.09
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 58%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 75%+18pp
Result: No · 1.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.09
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.35
Will both teams score1.13
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 42% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: England win in an open, end-to-end affair with goals at both ends and the scoreboard ticking well past two.

Match resultEngland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tighter contest in the crowd's eye, England edging through in a low-scoring game that still sees Croatia find the net at least once.

Match resultEngland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

The crowd's compact shutdown vision: England win, goals are scarce, and Croatia are kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultEngland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
70% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 602 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
142%252 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
216%97 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
312%72 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.5×
45%33 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
55%32 voters
EnglandCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
65%29 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
73%21 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.6×
83%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
93%20 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
102%11 voters
CroatiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (602 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 332 · 5%
2 / 3339 · 56%
1 / 3178 · 30%
0 / 353 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=602). Average 1.58 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.