All resolved pollsResolved · 1 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Argentina Primera: four of Saturday's games
Gimnasia (Mendoza) 2–0 Unión (Santa Fe) · Belgrano (Córdoba) 0–1 Argentinos Juniors · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0–0 Banfield · Estudiantes de La Plata 3–0 Defensa y Justicia
The verdict

Gimnasia (Mendoza) 2–0 Unión (Santa Fe) · Belgrano (Córdoba) 0–1 Argentinos Juniors · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 0–0 Banfield · Estudiantes de La Plata 3–0 Defensa y Justicia

Argentina Primera: four of Saturday's games 619 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Argentinos Juniors, and it went the other way.

54%Crowd on Argentinos Juniors
28%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs…Crowd beat the market
Estudiantes (Rio…Surprise
Belgrano vs Argentinos…Crowd beat the market
Estudiantes La Plata vs…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario8%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters619World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Union Santa Fe: who wins?
Mendoza ✓52%
Union Santa Fe36%
Tie12%
OutcomeMendoza
Voters619
ReadCrowd
2Estudiantes (Rio Cuarto) vs Banfield: who wins?
Banfield46%
Rio Cuarto39%
Tie ✓15%
OutcomeTie
Voters619
ReadUpset
3Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: who wins?
Argentinos Juniors ✓54%
Belgrano de Cordoba33%
Tie13%
OutcomeArgentinos Juniors
Voters619
ReadCrowd
4Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: who wins?
Estudiantes La Plata ✓53%
Defensa y Justicia29%
Tie18%
OutcomeEstudiantes La Plata
Voters619
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Union Santa Fe: who wins: MendozaCrowd
Mkt 30%Crowd 52%+22pp
Result: Mendoza · 0.37
: Deep
Estudiantes (Rio Cuarto) vs Banfield: who wins: BanfieldUpset
Mkt 32%Crowd 46%+14pp
Result: Tie · 1.09
: Deep
Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: who wins: Argentinos JuniorsCrowd
Mkt 28%Crowd 54%+26pp
Result: Argentinos Juniors · 0.34
: Deep
Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: who wins: Estudiantes La PlataConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 53%-5pp
Result: Estudiantes La Plata · 0.34
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Union Santa Fe: who wins0.37
Estudiantes (Rio Cuarto) vs Banfield: who wins1.09
Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: who wins0.34
Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: who wins0.34
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 8% of voters

A contrarian vision: Union Santa Fe upsetting Mendoza, Banfield winning away, Argentinos Juniors beating Belgrano, and Estudiantes La Plata holding home ground.

Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Union Santa Fe: who wins?Union Santa Fe
Estudiantes (Rio Cuarto) vs Banfield: who wins?Banfield
Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: who wins?Argentinos Juniors
Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: who wins?Estudiantes La Plata
Scenario 2 · 7% of voters

The crowd's most internally consistent picture: home wins for Mendoza and Estudiantes La Plata, Banfield taking points on the road, and Argentinos Juniors downing Belgrano.

Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Union Santa Fe: who wins?Mendoza
Estudiantes (Rio Cuarto) vs Banfield: who wins?Banfield
Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: who wins?Argentinos Juniors
Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: who wins?Estudiantes La Plata
Scenario 3 · 6% of voters

A home-heavy sweep: Mendoza, Rio Cuarto, and Estudiantes La Plata all winning on their own turf, with Argentinos Juniors the one away side bucking the pattern.

Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Union Santa Fe: who wins?Mendoza
Estudiantes (Rio Cuarto) vs Banfield: who wins?Rio Cuarto
Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: who wins?Argentinos Juniors
Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: who wins?Estudiantes La Plata
21% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 619 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosGimnasia (Mendoza) vs Union Santa Fe: who wins?Estudiantes (Rio Cuarto) vs Banfield: who wins?Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: who wins?Estudiantes La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: who wins?
18%49 voters
Union Santa FeGot it wrong
BanfieldGot it wrong
Argentinos JuniorsCalled it!
Estudiantes La PlataCalled it!
1.7×
27%42 voters
MendozaCalled it!
BanfieldGot it wrong
Argentinos JuniorsCalled it!
Estudiantes La PlataCalled it!
1.0×
36%37 voters
MendozaCalled it!
Rio CuartoGot it wrong
Argentinos JuniorsCalled it!
Estudiantes La PlataCalled it!
1.0×
45%31 voters
Union Santa FeGot it wrong
BanfieldGot it wrong
Belgrano de CordobaGot it wrong
Estudiantes La PlataCalled it!
1.7×
55%28 voters
MendozaCalled it!
BanfieldGot it wrong
Belgrano de CordobaGot it wrong
Estudiantes La PlataCalled it!
1.1×
64%26 voters
MendozaCalled it!
Rio CuartoGot it wrong
Belgrano de CordobaGot it wrong
Estudiantes La PlataCalled it!
1.2×
74%25 voters
MendozaCalled it!
Rio CuartoGot it wrong
Argentinos JuniorsCalled it!
Defensa y JusticiaGot it wrong
1.3×
84%24 voters
Union Santa FeGot it wrong
Rio CuartoGot it wrong
Argentinos JuniorsCalled it!
Estudiantes La PlataCalled it!
1.0×
94%22 voters
MendozaCalled it!
BanfieldGot it wrong
Argentinos JuniorsCalled it!
Defensa y JusticiaGot it wrong
0.9×
103%21 voters
MendozaCalled it!
Rio CuartoGot it wrong
Belgrano de CordobaGot it wrong
Defensa y JusticiaGot it wrong
1.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (619 voters · top 10 of 76 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-13The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-13; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-21. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 410 · 2%
3 / 4107 · 17%
2 / 4246 · 40%
1 / 4221 · 36%
0 / 435 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=619). Average 1.74 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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