The matchResolvedUpset
Uruguay2
Cape Verde2
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
63%Crowd
39%Market
+24Divergence

+24 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, and that read aligned with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap39%63% Yes+24
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?41%57% Yes+16
3Who leads at half-time?46%61% Uruguay+15
4Who wins?66%68% Uruguay+2
How it landed:UpsetUruguay 2–2 Cape Verde Islands — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Uruguay68%
Cape Verde19%
Draw13%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes57%
No43%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Uruguay61%
Draw22%
Cape Verde18%
OutcomeUruguay
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: UruguayUpset
Mkt 66%Crowd 68%+2pp
Result: Draw · 1.26
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 41%Crowd 57%+16pp
Result: Yes · 0.37
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 39%Crowd 63%+24pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: UruguayConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 61%+15pp
Result: Uruguay · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.26
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.37
Will both teams score0.27
Who leads at half-time0.23
Average0.53
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A free-flowing contest with Uruguay in control throughout, goals at both ends, and the scoreboard busy enough to clear three by the final whistle.

Who wins?Uruguay
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Uruguay
Scenario 2 · 11% of voters

A tight, disciplined Uruguay performance, keeping Cape Verde off the scoresheet and grinding out a low-scoring win from a position of half-time control.

Who wins?Uruguay
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Uruguay
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

Uruguay dominant and prolific, piling on goals themselves while shutting Cape Verde out, leading at the break and running up the tally across ninety minutes.

Who wins?Uruguay
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?Uruguay
45% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
126%334 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
UruguayCalled it!
1.7×
211%142 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
UruguayCalled it!
1.6×
39%119 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
UruguayCalled it!
1.0×
49%117 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
UruguayCalled it!
0.8×
57%91 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
5.7×
64%55 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.8×
74%47 voters
UruguayGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
83%45 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
7.6×
93%37 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
3.7×
102%27 voters
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
Cape VerdeGot it wrong
2.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 414 · 1%
3 / 4404 · 31%
2 / 4485 · 37%
1 / 4305 · 23%
0 / 4100 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 1.94 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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