The matchResolvedUpset
Germany1 (3)
Paraguay1 (4)
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
71%Crowd
47%Market
+24Divergence

+24 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on both teams scoring. That divergence aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap47%71% Yes+24
2Who leads at half-time?53%66% Germany wins 1st Half+13
3Who wins this match?82%87% Germany advances+5
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?54%55% Yes+1
How it landed:UpsetGermany 1–1 Paraguay (Paraguay win 4–3 on penalties) — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 3 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario29%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Germany advances87%
Paraguay advances13%
OutcomeParaguay advances
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Germany wins 1st Half66%
Tie 1st Half20%
Paraguay wins 1st Half14%
OutcomeParaguay wins 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Germany advancesUpset
Mkt 82%Crowd 87%+5pp
Result: Paraguay advances · 1.51
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 55%+1pp
Result: No · 0.61
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Germany wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 66%+13pp
Result: Paraguay wins 1st Half · 1.22
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 71%+24pp
Result: Yes · 0.17
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.51
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.61
Who leads at half-time1.22
Will both teams score in regulation time0.17
Average0.88
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 29% of voters

Germany in control from the off, both sides finding the net in a high-scoring game that Germany ultimately win to advance.

Who wins this match?Germany advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Germany wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

Germany lead at the break and both teams score, but the final tally stays tight as Germany advance on a lean scoreline.

Who wins this match?Germany advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Germany wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A goal-heavy game with Germany in front at half-time, though only one side finds the net as Germany progress.

Who wins this match?Germany advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Germany wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
129%476 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Germany wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
217%281 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Germany wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
311%175 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Germany wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
47%119 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Germany wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
56%101 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
65%81 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
74%65 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
84%62 voters
Paraguay advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Paraguay wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
6.4×
93%47 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Paraguay wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
103%42 voters
Germany advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Paraguay wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 462 · 4%
3 / 4123 · 7%
2 / 4498 · 30%
1 / 4773 · 47%
0 / 4200 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 1.44 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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