All resolved pollsResolved · 16 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Community Shield: Arsenal v Manchester City
Arsenal 3, Manchester City 0
The verdict

Arsenal 3, Manchester City 0

Community Shield: Arsenal v Manchester City 665 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

81%Crowd on Yes
55%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
After ninety minutes,…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreSurprise
lifts the trophy once…Market beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters665World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1After ninety minutes, what is the result?
Manchester City55%
Arsenal ✓36%
Tie9%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters665
ReadMarket
2Will both teams score?
Yes81%
No ✓19%
OutcomeNo
Voters665
ReadUpset
3Who lifts the trophy once penalties are settled?
Manchester City62%
Arsenal ✓38%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters665
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

After ninety minutes, what is the result: Manchester CityMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 55%+20pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.72
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 81%+26pp
Result: No · 1.31
: Deep
Who lifts the trophy once penalties are settled: Manchester CityMarket
Mkt 48%Crowd 62%+14pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.77
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
After ninety minutes, what is the result0.72
Will both teams score1.31
Who lifts the trophy once penalties are settled0.77
Average0.93
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

The dominant crowd vision: City control ninety minutes, both sides find the net in an open contest, and City lift the trophy without needing penalties.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?Manchester City
Will both teams score?Yes
Who lifts the trophy once penalties are settled?Manchester City
Scenario 2 · 22% of voters

A vocal minority saw Arsenal take the ninety minutes in a free-scoring match and carry that momentum to claim the trophy themselves.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?Arsenal
Will both teams score?Yes
Who lifts the trophy once penalties are settled?Arsenal
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A smaller cluster pictured City grinding out a clean, controlled ninety minutes and sealing the trophy without the game opening up.

After ninety minutes, what is the result?Manchester City
Will both teams score?No
Who lifts the trophy once penalties are settled?Manchester City
71% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 665 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosAfter ninety minutes, what is the result?Will both teams score?Who lifts the trophy once penalties are settled?
141%270 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Manchester CityGot it wrong
1.5×
222%148 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
ArsenalCalled it!
2.0×
38%53 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Manchester CityGot it wrong
1.2×
46%41 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Manchester CityGot it wrong
0.3×
55%33 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
NoCalled it!
ArsenalCalled it!
1.9×
65%33 voters
Manchester CityGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ArsenalCalled it!
0.3×
73%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Manchester CityGot it wrong
0.8×
83%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
ArsenalCalled it!
1.1×
92%16 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Manchester CityGot it wrong
0.6×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Manchester CityGot it wrong
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (665 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 333 · 5%
2 / 3181 · 27%
1 / 3158 · 24%
0 / 3293 · 44%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=665). Average 0.93 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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