All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Brighton and Hove Albion5
Crystal PalaceCrowd had 48%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Crystal Palace. Brighton and Hove Albion won 5–0.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace 531 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 31 points above the market's price on Crystal Palace, and it went the other way.

48%Crowd on Crystal Palace
17%Market price
+31Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters531World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Crystal Palace48%
Brighton ✓35%
Tie17%
OutcomeBrighton
Voters531
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters531
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes66%
No ✓34%
OutcomeNo
Voters531
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Crystal PalaceMarket
Mkt 17%Crowd 48%+31pp
Result: Brighton · 0.68
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 51%-10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 66%+9pp
Result: No · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.68
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.87
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Crystal Palace winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a game that delivered plenty of goals.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A Brighton win in a free-scoring, mutually productive match, with both teams contributing to a high-goal tally in a lively south-coast derby.

Match resultBrighton
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Crystal Palace grinding out a tight, low-scoring victory, keeping Brighton off the scoresheet in a disciplined, defensively compact encounter.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
52% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 531 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
120%107 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
217%89 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
315%78 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.8×
410%51 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
58%40 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
67%39 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
77%35 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
84%23 voters
BrightonCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
94%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
104%21 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (531 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 323 · 4%
2 / 3151 · 28%
1 / 3266 · 50%
0 / 391 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=531). Average 1.2 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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