All resolved pollsResolved · 12 OCT 2026Upset
Los Angeles RamsCrowd's pick · 67%34
Buffalo BillsWon · Crowd had 33%37
The verdict

The crowd backed No. Buffalo Bills won 34–37.

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills 3 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on No, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on No
44%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
Los Angeles win by 3 or…Crowd beat the market
there be more than 54.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters3World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Los Angeles Rams67%
Buffalo Bills ✓33%
OutcomeBuffalo Bills
Voters3
ReadUpset
2Will Los Angeles win by 3 or more?
No ✓67%
Yes33%
OutcomeNo
Voters3
ReadCrowd
3Will there be more than 54.5 points?
Over 54.5 ✓67%
Under 54.533%
OutcomeOver 54.5
Voters3
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Buffalo ✓33%
Los Angeles R33%
Tie33%
OutcomeBuffalo
Voters3
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Los Angeles RamsUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 67%+5pp
Result: Buffalo Bills · 0.90
: Deep
Will Los Angeles win by 3 or more: NoCrowd
Mkt 44%Crowd 67%+23pp
Result: No · 0.22
: Deep
Will there be more than 54.5 points: Over 54.5Crowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Over 54.5 · 0.22
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: BuffaloCrowd
Mkt 37%Crowd 33%-4pp
Result: Buffalo · 0.67
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Los Angeles win by 3 or more0.22
Will there be more than 54.5 points0.22
Who leads at half-time0.67
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

A defensive Bills upset: Buffalo leads at the break, holds LA without a margin cover, and both sides keep the scoring contained in a low-total game.

Who wins?Buffalo Bills
Will Los Angeles win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 54.5 points?Under 54.5
Who leads at half-time?Buffalo
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A high-scoring Rams win where LA leads at half but the margin stays tight, points flood in and LA takes it without covering the spread comfortably.

Who wins?Los Angeles Rams
Will Los Angeles win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 54.5 points?Over 54.5
Who leads at half-time?Los Angeles R
Scenario 3 · 33% of voters

A dominant Rams performance with a balanced first half, LA pulls clear by more than a field goal in a free-flowing, high-point game with neither side leading at the break.

Who wins?Los Angeles Rams
Will Los Angeles win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 54.5 points?Over 54.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 3 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Los Angeles win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 54.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
133%1 voter
Buffalo BillsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 54.5Got it wrong
BuffaloCalled it!
13.8×
233%1 voter
Los Angeles RamsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 54.5Called it!
Los Angeles RGot it wrong
3.4×
333%1 voter
Los Angeles RamsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Over 54.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
6.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (3 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.83How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call13.8×The most-backed combination drew 13.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-42. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 41 · 33%
2 / 41 · 33%
1 / 41 · 33%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=3). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.