All resolved pollsResolved · 27 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
DenmarkWon · Crowd had 63%2
WalesCrowd had 23%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Denmark won 2–0.

Denmark vs Wales 606 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
49%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters606World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Denmark ✓63%
Wales23%
Tie14%
OutcomeDenmark
Voters606
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters606
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters606
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: DenmarkConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 63%+1pp
Result: Denmark · 0.21
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 50%-1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.21
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.50
Will both teams score0.90
Average0.54
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

A lively Danish win with goals at both ends, the crowd's most-backed vision, pulling together more voters than independent answers alone would predict.

Match resultDenmark
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Denmark edging through a tight, low-scoring contest that still sees Wales find the net, a cautious but open-ended read on how the match unfolds.

Match resultDenmark
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters · came true

Denmark grinding out a clean, controlled win with few goals and the door firmly shut on Wales, a compact defensive scenario that clusters notably above chance.

Match resultDenmark
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 606 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
128%167 voters
DenmarkCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
215%90 voters
DenmarkCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
315%89 voters
DenmarkCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
410%58 voters
WalesGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
56%36 voters
DenmarkCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
66%34 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
76%34 voters
WalesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
85%33 voters
WalesGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
94%25 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
104%22 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (606 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 389 · 15%
2 / 3185 · 31%
1 / 3252 · 42%
0 / 380 · 13%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=606). Average 1.47 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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