All resolved pollsResolved · 16 SEPT 2026Crowd beat the market
Deportivo La Coruña0
SevillaWon · Crowd had 56%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Sevilla won 0–1.

Deportivo vs Sevilla 635 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Sevilla, and the crowd had it.

56%Crowd on Sevilla
31%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario19%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters635World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Sevilla ✓56%
Deportivo De La Coruna30%
Tie14%
OutcomeSevilla
Voters635
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓55%
Over 2.5 goals45%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters635
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No ✓35%
OutcomeNo
Voters635
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: SevillaCrowd
Mkt 31%Crowd 56%+25pp
Result: Sevilla · 0.30
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 55%-4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.40
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 50%Crowd 65%+15pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.30
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.40
Will both teams score0.85
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 19% of voters

A lively Sevilla victory with goals at both ends and the game opening up, the crowd's most-backed vision of how the match would unfold.

Match resultSevilla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters · came true

Sevilla grinding out a tight, controlled win, keeping Deportivo scoreless in a compact, low-event contest. The tightest internal clustering of any scenario.

Match resultSevilla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Sevilla edging it in a close affair where both sides find the net but the game stays narrow, a scrappy win rather than a statement one.

Match resultSevilla
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 635 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
119%122 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
217%108 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
314%88 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
412%76 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
58%53 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.7×
68%51 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
76%39 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
86%37 voters
SevillaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
93%22 voters
Deportivo De La CorunaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
103%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (635 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3108 · 17%
2 / 3177 · 28%
1 / 3253 · 40%
0 / 397 · 15%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=635). Average 1.47 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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