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Racing Santander
Real Madrid
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
88%Crowd
80%Market
+8Divergence

+8 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits meaningfully above the market on Real Madrid to win.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap80%88% Real Madrid+8
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?80%75% Over 2.5 goals-5
3Will both teams score?63%61% Yes-2
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario45%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters546World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Madrid88%
Santander8%
Tie5%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters546
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals75%
Under 2.5 goals25%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters546
3Will both teams score?
Yes61%
No39%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters546
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real Madrid
Mkt 80%Crowd 88%+8pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 80%Crowd 75%-5pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 63%Crowd 61%-2pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 45% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Real Madrid win a free-flowing, open contest where both sides contribute to a busy scoreline.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 24% of voters

A secondary cluster sees Real Madrid win a goal-heavy game but keep Santander off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tighter, more controlled Real Madrid victory with few goals and Santander shut out, drawing notably stronger agreement than chance alone would produce.

Match resultReal Madrid
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
79% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 546 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
145%243 voters
Real MadridPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
224%129 voters
Real MadridPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.9×
311%60 voters
Real MadridPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.3×
48%46 voters
Real MadridPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
54%20 voters
SantanderPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.0×
62%13 voters
SantanderPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
2.0×
71%7 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.9×
81%6 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.4×
91%6 voters
SantanderPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
101%6 voters
TiePending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (546 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.09How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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